419
FXUS62 KTBW 230015
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
815 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
EVENING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES PLANNED. HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED CONUS PATTERN CONTINUES, WITH STRONG C U.S. RIDGING AND A
DEEP E SEABOARD L/W TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE STATE, WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH COUPLED WITH A REMNANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FL STRAITS CONTINUES COOLER, DRIER AND
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS LOCALLY. EVENING WV SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A FEW S/W DISTURBANCES SPANNING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE N
GULF DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF THE L/W TROUGH, EVENTUALLY INDUCING
THE FORMATION OF AN U/L CUT-OFF LOW THIS WEEKEND OVER THE STATE AND
W ATLANTIC. DRIER AIR IS ALSO APPARENT, PARTICULARLY IN THE LOW
AND MID LEVELS, WITH REGIONAL ACARS SOUNDINGS AND THE 00Z KTBW
SOUNDING ALONG WITH SURFACE OBS AND MESO-ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATING
24-HR DEW POINT DECREASES OF UP TO 10-15 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA, AND PWATS DOWN TO BELOW AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE CWA, WITH
NORTHERN AND MOST CENTRAL AREAS DOWN TO BETWEEN 0.5-0.75 INCHES.
CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND GENERALLY CLOUD-FREE AREA WIDE THIS
EVENING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN LOCATIONS ACROSS PARTS OF
CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES WHERE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE AND SOME
AREAS OF CLOUDINESS REMAIN. NE WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 5-10 MPH
AND SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR THROUGH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE INCREASING LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. ANOTHER DRY AND
BREEZY DAY EXPECTED UNDER A FEW AFTERNOON CLOUDS WITH AREA POPS
REMAINING BELOW 10%, WITH MORNING LOWS FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO
LOWER 60S SOUTH, AND AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY AND FLORIDA WITH RIDGING TO OUR WEST WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED TO OUR NORTH AND A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LINGERS SOUTH OF THE STATE. THIS SETUP HAS KEPT NORTHEAST WINDS IN
PLACE WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, A CUTOFF LOW WILL FORM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF BEFORE OPENING UP AND LIFTING NORTHEAST AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK
IN. AT THE SURFACE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH, LEADING TO
INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. OVERALL, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EXCEPT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA MAINLY THIS WEEKEND
WITH THE STRONGER WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY NEAR
NORMALS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
DRY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY NE FLOW
CONTINUING ACROSS AREA TERMINALS, OCCASIONALLY GUSTY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
WIND SPEEDS AROUND EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL
INCREASE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA STARTING TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH SOME
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED, AND REMAIN ELEVATED INTO NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 62 81 63 83 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 63 84 63 85 / 0 10 0 10
GIF 60 82 62 83 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 60 81 62 82 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 52 81 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 67 80 68 82 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...HURT
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...CARLISLE
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...WYNN
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