248
FXUS62 KTBW 230508
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
108 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. BECOMING BREEZY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1258 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
HIGH AMPLITUDE U/L PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH A STRONG U/L TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S., STRONG
RIDGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S., AND A DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. A TANDEM OF U/L DISTURBANCES, AS SEEN IN W/V
IMAGERY, ONE OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND THE OTHER JUST OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST, WILL DIG INTO THE BASE OF THE EAST COAST TROUGH
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS EVENTUALLY MERGING CREATING AN U/L
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ON SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN, OPEN UP, AND LIFT NORTHEAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AN U/L RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN ITS
WAKE.
AT THE SURFACE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST
U.S. TODAY WHICH WILL EXTEND DOWN OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
FLORIDA. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN OVER WESTERN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY, AND FURTHER TIGHTEN OVER THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH AND A STRENGTHENING
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH DUE TO THE U/L ENERGY FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL
CREATE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA DUE TO SHOWERS ADVECTING
ONSHORE THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA OFF THE
ATLANTIC IN CONVERGENT NORTHEAST FLOW NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHES INLAND INTO A DRIER
MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA DUE TO STRATO-CU CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH A BIT MORE L/L MOISTURE NORTH OF THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY RIDING UP AN OVER THAT AREA. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE INTERIOR WHERE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS. EARLY
NEXT WEEK, SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY AND MOSTLY
CLEAR AT NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURE EACH DAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL RUN GENERALLY AROUND 80 NORTH TO THE MID 80S
SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH VARY A BIT DUE TO CHANGES IN DEW POINTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWER TO MID 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE LOWS IN THE 60S SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO HIGHER DEW POINTS. THEN FALL BACK INTO THE
UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH AS SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS
ADVECT BACK ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND FRIDAY AT NORTH TERMINALS. FEW-SCT050
OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, SCT LCL BKN
050-060 FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1258 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
CAUTIONARY NORTHEAST WINDS FRIDAY MORNING ON PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS LATE IN THE DAY.
THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FURTHER OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ADVISORY
LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING, BUT STRENGTHENING WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR ALL OF THE WATERS EXCEPT TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR...AND
A GALE WATCH MAY BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE OFFSHORE
WIND FLOW WILL ALSO CAUSE TIDES TO RUN BELOW ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1258 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RECOVER A BIT TODAY AND KEEP MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA, GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RECOVER EVEN FURTHER ON SATURDAY,
HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 81 61 82 68 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 84 65 84 68 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 82 62 83 68 / 0 0 10 0
SRQ 81 63 82 68 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 81 57 82 65 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 80 64 81 69 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON
SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...OGLESBY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...OGLESBY
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