130
FXUS62 KTBW 231846
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
246 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- BECOMING BREEZY AREAWIDE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
LONGWAVE TROUGH DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE S GULF WILL
HOLD FOR ANOTHER DAY BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING TO THE FL E COAST
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE BASE CREATING A BRIEF CUTOFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO MONDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN, OPEN UP, AND LIFT NORTHEAST BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION TO
END THE WEEK.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL INTERACT
WITH AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TIGHTENING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT GUSTY NE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AT THE COAST AND
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SHOWERS MOVING ONTO THE E COAST OF FL IN
THE BREEZY NE FLOW WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INLAND WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NE WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING SURGE BEFORE
DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT THEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS SAT.
MARINE
STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING LARGE CHOPPY SEAS WILL KEEP HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER
WITH WIND GUSTS STRENGTHENING TO NEAR GALE FORCE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT
UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATER NEXT WEEK. THE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW
WILL ALSO CAUSE TIDES TO RUN BELOW ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS AS WELL.
FIRE WEATHER
GUSTY NE WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH MINIMUM RH ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 61 82 68 84 / 0 0 0 10
FMY 65 84 69 86 / 0 0 0 20
GIF 61 83 68 85 / 0 10 20 20
SRQ 62 82 68 85 / 0 0 0 10
BKV 59 82 67 84 / 0 10 10 10
SPG 63 81 69 83 / 0 0 0 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON
SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
RJD
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