892
FXUS62 KTBW 240443
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1243 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- BECOMING BREEZY AREAWIDE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL FORECAST REASONING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH AMPLITUDE U/L PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. PATTERN HAS SHIFTED A BIT EAST WITH A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA INDUCING A STEEP RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN GULF TO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND MEAN TROUGH WAS LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OF
THE RIDGE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. W/V IMAGERY INDICATES AN U/L
DISTURBANCE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS WHICH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
ANOTHER U/L DISTURBANCE, WHICH WILL BECOME THE MAIN FEATURE OVER
THE WEEKEND, IS LOCATED EAST OF THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER AND IS
SINKING SOUTH, WITH A CLOSED U/L LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE SYSTEM WILL VERY SLOWLY
LIFT NORTHEAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN U/L RIDGE WILL BUILD
BACK OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN ITS WAKE.
AT THE SURFACE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S.
EXTENDS DOWN OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA. A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PERSISTS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE
GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY AND SUNDAY DUE TO THE STRONG HIGH TO
THE NORTH AND A STRENGTHENING STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH DUE
TO THE U/L ENERGY FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES RIDING
OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON SUNDAY DUE TO SHOWERS ADVECTING ONSHORE
THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA OFF THE
ATLANTIC IN CONVERGENT NORTHEAST FLOW NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHES INLAND
INTO A DRIER MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON,
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. SKIES WILL AGAIN
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY. WITH THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING OVER THE REGION
NEXT WEEK AND THE U/L LOW OFF OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS MOVING
AWAY FROM THE AREA, MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATIC NORMALS EACH DAY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND MORNING AT NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH
FEW-SCT 050-060 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FEW-SCT 050-060 OVER
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, WITH SCT LCL BKN
050-060 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS
ALL OF THE WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FURTHER OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY, WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW WILL
ALSO CAUSE TIDES TO RUN ABOUT 1/2 TO 1 FOOT BELOW ASTRONOMICAL
LEVELS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO KEEP MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 82 68 84 68 / 0 0 10 0
FMY 84 69 86 71 / 0 0 20 0
GIF 83 68 85 68 / 10 20 20 0
SRQ 82 68 85 68 / 0 0 10 0
BKV 82 67 84 66 / 10 10 10 0
SPG 81 69 83 69 / 0 0 10 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR CHARLOTTE
HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA
BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...OGLESBY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...OGLESBY
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