165
FXUS62 KTBW 241756
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
156 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- BECOMING BREEZY AREAWIDE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
LATEST GUIDANCE AND FORECASTS ON TRACK WITH UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE W ATLANTIC INTO THE N CARIB BECOMING A BRIEF CUT-OFF LOW
N OF THE BAHAMAS SUNDAY. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
S OF THE AREA TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULFSTREAM AND
SE FL THAT GENERALLY DRIFT AND WEAKEN INTO OUR FL INTERIOR AND SW
FL ZONES BEFORE DISSIPATING THRU SUNDAY.
THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO VERY SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN U/L RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA IN ITS WAKE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT TERMINALS AND VFR CONDITIONS
AREAWIDE TONIGHT AND SUN WITH GUSTY NNE WINDS.
MARINE
STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING LARGE CHOPPY SEAS WILL KEEP HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER
WITH WIND GUSTS STRENGTHENING TO NEAR GALE FORCE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL
CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATER NEXT WEEK. THE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW WILL
ALSO CAUSE TIDES TO RUN BELOW ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS AS WELL.
FIRE WEATHER
GUSTY NE WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH MINIMUM RH ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 82 68 84 69 / 0 0 10 0
FMY 84 67 86 70 / 0 0 30 0
GIF 83 67 85 68 / 0 10 30 0
SRQ 82 67 85 69 / 0 0 10 0
BKV 82 65 84 66 / 0 10 10 0
SPG 81 68 83 70 / 0 0 10 0
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