156
FXUS62 KTBW 250715
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
315 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK.
- BREEZY AREAWIDE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTERIOR AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
CONUS U/L PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED AS PER PREVIOUS FORECASTS
WITH A W U.S. TROUGH, C/E U.S. RIDGE AND E SEABOARD TROUGH. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NE U.S. RIDGES SOUTH INTO
THE REGION RESULTING IN A TIGHTENED GRADIENT LOCALLY AS A REMNANT
BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA.
BREEZY E/NE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON, WILL CONTINUE LOCALLY UNDER THIS SETUP OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS TOWARD THE
INTERIOR AND INTO PARTS OF SWFL AS SHOWERS PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS
THE PENINSULA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMATIC NORMALS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND MORNING LOWS IN
THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
U/L PATTERN RELAXES A BIT BY MID WEEK AS E SEABOARD TROUGHING
FILLS AND SHIFTS INTO THE W ATLANTIC WHILE THE C/E U.S. RIDGING
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND SHIFTS TO THE E U.S. AND E SEABOARD. MOISTURE
RECOVERS A BIT LOCALLY WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES
AREA WIDE OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK ALLOWING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES TO RETURN TO MOST AREAS. OVERALL QPF
FOOTPRINT REMAINS FAIRLY LOW, HOWEVER, WITH 7-DAY TOTALS UP TO
AROUND A QUARTER-INCH FOR MOST INTERIOR AND SWFL LOCATIONS, AND
LOWER ELSEWHERE. WINDS REMAIN ON THE BREEZIER SIDE ALTHOUGH A FEW
MPH LOWER THAN THE EARLY-WEEK PERIOD. TEMPS WARM UNDER THE
EXPECTED RIDGING WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GUSTY NE WINDS. EMBEDDED
SHOWERS WITHIN THE BRISK FLOW MAY OCCASIONALLY SPREAD FAR ENOUGH
ACROSS W FL TO BRIEFLY IMPACT TERMINALS. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED AND
GUSTY THROUGH THE PERIOD, UP TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
STRONG WINDS AND LARGE CHOPPY SEAS WILL KEEP HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INTO MID WEEK, WITH NEAR-
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
OPERATORS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATER IN
THE WEEK. THE PERSISTENT OFFSHORE WIND FLOW WILL ALSO CAUSE TIDES
TO RUN BELOW ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
GUSTY NE WINDS AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM SHOWER CHANCES
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE TO KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 85 69 84 67 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 85 71 86 71 / 30 10 0 0
GIF 85 69 85 68 / 20 10 10 0
SRQ 85 69 85 68 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 85 65 84 63 / 0 10 10 0
SPG 83 70 83 69 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR CHARLOTTE
HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA
BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
HURT
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