023
FXUS62 KTBW 251830
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
230 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK.
- BREEZY AREAWIDE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST WILL DRIFT EAST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE REGION MID TO
LATE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. EARLY IN THE WEEK THEN ALSO BEGIN TO DRIFT EAST OUT
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING MIDWEEK. HOWEVER, IT WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES KEEPING A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT, BREEZY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE WESTWARD LEADING TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES, ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.
AS WE MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION, GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-4.
THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THIS AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUES WITH SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S, AND DAYTIME HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 80S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THESE COULD
CAUSE SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME OTHER PATCHES OF MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT, OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL KEEP HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INTO MIDWEEK, WITH NEAR-GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD REMAIN
IN PORT UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATER IN THE WEEK. THE PERSISTENT
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW WILL ALSO CAUSE TIDES TO RUN BELOW ASTRONOMICAL
LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS, ASIDE FROM A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. NO
FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE KEEPING MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 69 84 67 84 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 71 86 71 86 / 10 0 0 10
GIF 68 85 68 85 / 20 10 0 10
SRQ 69 85 68 85 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 67 84 63 85 / 10 10 0 0
SPG 70 83 69 83 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA
BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT
20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT
20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
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