042
FXUS62 KTBW 260736
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
336 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK.
- BREEZY AREAWIDE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
U/A ANALYSIS COURTESY OF MORNING W/V IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP C/E
U.S. RIDGE AND DEEP E SEABOARD/W ATLANTIC TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH
TO A CUT-OFF LOW OVER CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE E U.S. RIDGES SOUTH INTO THE AREA NORTH
OF A BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS. RESULTING LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL E/NE FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE OVER THE
PENINSULA, WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OCCASIONALLY
WORKING ACROSS THE PENINSULA INTO W FL AREAS LEADING TO GENERALLY
ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE TODAY AND TUESDAY. TIGHTENED GRADIENT IN
PLACE WITH THE SETUP WILL CONTINUE BREEZY CONDITIONS, WITH GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 25-30 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS.
U/L PATTERN SHIFTS A BIT INTO MID WEEK, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING EAST AND RE-ORIENTING NORTH OF FL AS THE E SEABOARD/W
ATLANTIC TROUGHING FILLS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST, LEAVING THE CUT-OFF
LOW NEAR CUBA/THE BAHAMAS AND GRADUALLY FILLING. E/NE MOISTURE
FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO THE PENINSULA LENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO
THE RE-POSITIONED RIDGE AXIS, LEADING TO PWATS CLIMBING TO 1.5-2
INCHES AREA WIDE ON WED-THU WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
CHANCES GRADUALLY EXPANDING WESTWARD FROM THE INTERIOR INTO AREAS
CLOSER TO THE COAST, PARTICULARLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-4. DEW POINTS
CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S TO LOWER/MID 70S OVER THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK ACCOMPANYING THE UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES, WHILE WINDS
REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE E/NE, ALTHOUGH NOT AS ELEVATED AS DURING
THE EARLY-WEEK PERIOD. OVERALL CONDITIONS THEN HOLD INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES FAVORING AREAS
AWAY FROM IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS. TEMPS WILL RUN WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE WARMING TO ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, INTO THE MID 60S/LOWER
70S FOR MORNING LOWS AND THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
MAINLY VFR WITH CONTINUED BREEZY TO GUSTY E/NE FLOW ACROSS
TERMINALS WITH ATLANTIC MOISTURE STREAMING WEST ACROSS THE
PENINSULA BRINGING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER CHANCES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL KEEP HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INTO MID WEEK, WITH NEAR-GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATER IN THE WEEK. THE
PERSISTENT OFFSHORE WIND FLOW WILL ALSO CAUSE TIDES TO RUN BELOW
ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE DIMINISHING
SLIGHTLY OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. SPOTTY HIGH DISPERSIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TUESDAY, PRIMARILY FAVORING THE INTERIOR,
BEFORE MOISTURE INCREASES MID TO LATE WEEK ACCOMPANIED BY AN UPTICK
IN SHOWER CHANCES. NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE KEEPING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 84 67 84 70 / 10 0 10 0
FMY 86 70 86 72 / 10 0 10 0
GIF 85 67 85 70 / 10 10 10 0
SRQ 85 68 85 70 / 0 0 10 10
BKV 84 62 85 65 / 10 10 0 0
SPG 83 68 83 71 / 10 0 10 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR CHARLOTTE
HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA
BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
HURT
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