402
FNUS73 KTOP 192346
FWSTOP
SPOT FORECAST FOR KINCADE SPOT...ANDERSON COUNTY EM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
546 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1800 CST ON DECEMBER 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE COUNTY PASSING THE KINCAID
AREA AROUND 9PM. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THESE STRONG WINDS SHOULD PERSIST
OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY WEAKEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THERE COULD BE A
SPRINKLE MOVE THROUGH WITH THE FRONT, BUT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
IS UNLIKELY AT ONLY ABOUT A 5 PERCENT CHANCE.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........45 AT FORECAST START...MIN 20.
RH..................63 PERCENT AT FORECAST START...MAX 62 PERCENT.
SURFACE WINDS (MPH).SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 11 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST 14 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 33
MPH LATE IN THE EVENING.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 7 MPH AT FORECAST
START...OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH
SHIFTING TO THE WEST EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 13 TO 18 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 32 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL AT FORECAST START...OTHERWISE 400 FT
AGL.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR /5800 KNOT-FT/ AT FORECAST START.
MIN...POOR /5800 KNOT-FT/.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT FORECAST START...MAX
5.
TIME (CST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY COVER.......CLR CLR CLR CLR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............45 43 43 41 38 34 31 29 26 24 23 22
RH..............63 62 60 57 52 51 49 51 52 54 57 57
20 FT WIND DIR..SW W W NW NW N NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..7 10 12 16 16 18 18 16 15 13 15 16
20 FT WIND GUST.12 14 18 28 32 30 29 26 23 22 23 25
SURFACE WND DIR.SW W W NW NW N NW NW NW NW NW NW
SURFACE WND SPD.8 11 13 18 18 20 20 18 17 14 17 18
SURFACE WND GST.13 15 20 31 35 33 32 29 25 24 25 28
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8
HAINES INDEX....5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4
SDSPL KT-FT/10006 7 8 9 11 39 40 31 30 30 32 37
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 33.
RH..................MIN 45 PERCENT.
SURFACE WINDS (MPH).NORTH WINDS 8 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 29
MPH DECREASING TO 6 TO 7 MPH LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 26
MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 5 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (8500 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (43900 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (CST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY COVER.......CLEAR CLEAR CLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............22 20 22 28 33 32
RH..............57 64 65 53 47 49
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N
20 FT WIND SPD..16 16 13 10 8 6
20 FT WIND GUST.26 26 22 15 9
SURFACE WIND....N 18 N 18 N 14 N 11 N 9 N 7
SURFACE WND GST.29 29 24 17 10
MIX HGT (FT)....1900 1900 1900 2200 2200 1600
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4
SDSPL KT-FT/100039 39 37 38 33 18
FORECASTER...WOLTERS
REQUESTED BY...MARK LOCKE
TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT
.TAG 2428813.0/TOP
.DELDT 12/19/24
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL MLOCKE@ANDERSONCOUNTYKS.ORG
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