027
FXUS64 KTSA 270446
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1046 PM CST TUE NOV 26 2024
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 800 PM CST TUE NOV 26 2024
CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS ON TRACK. HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR
CHANGES TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CST TUE NOV 26 2024
THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA, MEANING A RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY MILDER, RELATIVELY SPEAKING, THAN LAST NIGHT'S HARD
FREEZE IN MANY LOCATIONS.
LACY
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CST TUE NOV 26 2024
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR THE OR/CA BORDER IS TRANSITIONING INTO
AN OPEN WAVE THAT WILL MARCH EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, A COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY, MAKING FOR A
SHARP GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH. INCREASING QG AND H85-H7 FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL
PRODUCE A WEST TO EAST BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS KS AND MO,
MAINLY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH AREAS NEAR THE
KS/MO BORDERS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS FOR
LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS. THE FORCING
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY MORNING, THOUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENING
AS WELL. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SPRINKLES INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING
IN THE EAST AND SOUTH.
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE BY THE
WEEKEND, WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE
COUNTRY. AS A RESULT, ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL DOWN INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE ROCKIES TO KEEP THE BRUNT OF THIS COLD AIR TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION. NEVERTHELESS, A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD
AIR WILL ARRIVE BY SUNDAY AS A WAVE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
PLAINS SLIDES BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A BAND OF LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP MAINLY SATURDAY ACROSS KS AND
MO WHICH COULD BRING SOME TRAVEL ISSUES FOR ANYONE RETURNING TO
THE AREA FROM THE HOLIDAY.
AN AMPLIFIED POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO NEXT
WEEK, MEANING THE TEMP ROLLER COASTER WILL CONTINUE. AFTER A
LIKELY WARMING TREND TO START NEXT WEEK, THE NEXT FRONT IS POISED
TO DROP SOUTH DOWN THE PLAINS BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE FORECAST IS
LOOKING DRY FOR NOW.
LACY
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST TUE NOV 26 2024
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS. LLWS STILL APPEARS TOO MARGINAL OVERNIGHT TO INCLUDE. BRIEF
LOWER MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE, NEAR DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW,
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG STRONG COLD FRONT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 43 58 32 46 / 0 0 0 10
FSM 41 65 41 51 / 0 0 10 10
MLC 45 68 37 50 / 0 0 10 10
BVO 36 55 29 45 / 0 10 0 0
FYV 39 59 31 46 / 0 10 10 10
BYV 39 58 33 44 / 0 10 20 10
MKO 42 63 35 46 / 0 10 10 10
MIO 38 55 30 43 / 0 20 10 10
F10 42 64 34 47 / 0 0 10 10
HHW 44 72 41 51 / 0 0 0 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...12
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