921
FXUS64 KTSA 271628
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1028 AM CST WED NOV 27 2024
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CST WED NOV 27 2024
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FILL IN ACROSS NORTHEAST OK, AND THIS TREND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO SURGE SOUTHWARD. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MAY ULTIMATELY INDUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE
ISOLATED OR SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP, HOWEVER THE ODDS OF ANYTHING
MEASURABLE STILL LOOK BELOW 20%. THUS WILL RIDE WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHWEST AR AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OK
THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS REGION WILL REMAIN IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO
UPPER SUPPORT. ONLY MINOR UPDATES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 155 AM CST WED NOV 27 2024
A COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS TODAY, LIKELY ENTERING NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA MIDDAY
AND SURGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A RAW
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND
INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
SHOULD BE COMMON. ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS, BUT A
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SPRINKLES COULD OCCUR ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 AM CST WED NOV 27 2024
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK, KEEPING THE
AREA IN LINE FOR ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE RETURN.
THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS TODAY, ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED SPRINKLES IN
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
THANKSGIVING MORNING, ANOTHER BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP WITHIN LOCALLY FASTER UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND SPREAD FROM
WEST TO EAST, PROBABLY SOMEWHERE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY BUT
WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF SPRINKLES.
WELL BELOW NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR
THANKSGIVING, WITH ENOUGH NORTHERLY WIND HANGING ON INTO THE DAY
TO MAKE IT FEEL WORSE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE
REGION BY THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, LEADING TO GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS UNCOMFORTABLY CLOSE TO THE UPPER
TEENS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY,
AHEAD OF ANOTHER LIKELY DRY COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD FEATURE WELL
BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AGAIN, AFTER THE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
RAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME NEXT
WEEK ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND PARTS OF
LOUISIANA WILL MAKE A CLOSE ENOUGH APPROACH TO INCLUDE LOW RAIN
CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
APPEAR IN THE OFFING TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALSO.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST WED NOV 27 2024
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE WIDESPREAD LOW-LEVEL
MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP BY OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONFIDENCE OF COVERAGE AND
DURATION OF THESE CIGS IS LOW AT THE MOMENT. BETTER CONFIDENCE OF
MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE SOUTHEASTWARD-
ADVANCING COLD FRONT LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL VEER SW-W AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY NW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, BECOMING GUSTY, WITH COMMON GUSTS UP TO 25
KNOTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS WILL OCCUR
FROM WEST-TO-EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING, WITH
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY HOLDING ON AT THE AR TERMINALS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MEJIA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 56 30 45 26 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 64 38 50 29 / 0 10 0 0
MLC 69 34 49 27 / 0 10 0 0
BVO 53 27 46 21 / 10 0 0 0
FYV 58 29 46 22 / 10 10 0 0
BYV 57 31 44 25 / 10 10 0 0
MKO 61 32 46 25 / 0 10 0 0
MIO 54 28 43 23 / 10 10 0 0
F10 63 31 47 26 / 0 10 0 0
HHW 73 40 51 29 / 0 10 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...67
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