511
FXUS64 KTSA 272235
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
435 PM CST WED NOV 27 2024
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 435 PM CST WED NOV 27 2024
FORECAST/GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED THRU THE EVENING HOURS TO INSERT
A WEST TO EAST ZONE OF DRIZZLE FROM JUST EAST OF GROVE INTO FAR NW
AR. AREA OBS, RADAR, AND MODEL DATA POINT AT THIS ZONE, ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ON THE FRONT, WHERE LOW LEVEL
LIFT IS MAXIMIZED AND THERE IS VERY LITTLE IF ANY PROB OF ICE
PRESENT IN THE CLOUD. EXPECT DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
AND TAPER OFF BY AROUND 03Z. FORTUNATELY, SURFACE TEMPS ARE STILL
WELL ABOVE FREEZING SO JUST A WET COMMUTE HOME JUST AHEAD OF THE
HOLIDAY. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MADE AT THIS TIME.
LACY
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST WED NOV 27 2024
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING. FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BE GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES MAKING FOR A RATHER RAW EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AS STRONGER ASCENT SPREADS JUST NORTHEAST OF
THE LOCAL REGION. ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT, WITH THE
LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. SOME
SPRINKLES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT FROM I-40 SOUTH
WITHIN A ZONE OF ENHANCED WESTERLIES ALOFT AND ALONG AN ELEVATED
FRONTAL ZONE. DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY CAUSE MOST OF
THE PRECIP TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND, BUT A FEW
SPRINKLES COULD REACH THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE, LOWS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FORM THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTH TO NEAR 40 AT THE RED RIVER AS
THE COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. SKIES WILL ALSO SLOWLY CLEAR FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TONIGHT TOWARD SUNRISE TOMORROW.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST WED NOV 27 2024
CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY IN THE 40S AREAWIDE.
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO MAKE IT FEEL COOLER,
WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO CALM TOWARD THE EVENING HOURS AS A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA. A COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS BY FRIDAY MORNING.
A BLOCKING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK WHILE WE REMAIN IN MOSTLY DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS FORECAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO REBOUND SOME BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL USHER IN MORE COLD AIR FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
THIS FRONT WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE
WITH THE LACK OF ANY MOISTURE RETURN TO THE REGION. SUNDAY WILL
AGAIN FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL LEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
AGAIN RETURN TO THE REGION. ANOTHER FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE
REGION TOWARD THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, WITH SOME BETTER
MOISTURE RETURN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA ALLOWING SOME LOW END RAIN CHANCES TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST WED NOV 27 2024
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE PRESENCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CEILINGS, INITIALLY COVERING MOST OF NORTHWEST AR AND PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OK. THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR LOWER CEILINGS TO
EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT, WITH MOST LOCATIONS
SEEING MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z. POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR A
PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS IN NW AR TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT LOW
IN HOW FAST IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR, AND THIS FORECAST WILL TREND
MORE PESSIMISTIC ACROSS NORTHWEST AR. WINDS INCREASE FROM THE
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE
PERSISTING WELL INTO THE EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 30 46 25 48 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 37 51 28 52 / 10 0 0 0
MLC 33 49 25 53 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 25 46 21 45 / 10 0 0 0
FYV 27 47 21 48 / 20 0 0 0
BYV 30 44 26 44 / 30 0 0 0
MKO 31 46 24 49 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 27 44 22 44 / 20 0 0 0
F10 31 47 24 49 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 40 51 28 53 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...14
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