789
FXUS64 KTSA 280438
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1038 PM CST WED NOV 27 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CST WED NOV 27 2024
PV MAX CURRENTLY OVER SW KS WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN KS AS
THE NIGHT WEARS ON. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE MID-LVL FRONTOGENETIC BAND
IS SHOWING UP AS SOME LIGHT ECHOES ALOFT ON RADAR MOSAIC FROM SE
KS DOWN INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OK. A LOOK AT OBS UNDERNEATH THE BAND
INDICATES THAT NONE OF THIS IS MAKING THE GROUND. NONE OF THE
MODELS CARRY ANY PRECIP FROM THIS BAND INTO OUR AREA, AND THIS
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN GROUND TRUTH AND THE FACT THAT THE FORCING
IS WEAKENING (FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SEPARATING OR DROPPING SOUTH
OF THE BETTER QG FORCING WITH THE PV MAX). CAN'T RULE OUT A
SPRINKLE OR TWO, BUT DEFINITELY NOT ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE GRIDS.
FURTHER TO THE EAST, OBS ACROSS SW MO AND NW AR HAVE IMPROVED
QUITE A BIT OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO, AND RADAR INDICATES THAT THE
BEST DRIZZLE POTENTIAL HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE I49 CORRIDOR TO THE
NORTHEAST OF FSM. WILL MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS TO FOCUS ON
THIS AREA THRU 03Z.
GIVEN SOME SIGNALS IN THE MODELS RECENTLY, THERE MAY BE A NARROW
BAND OF SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN OK SO WILL LEAVE
THE SPRINKLES IN THE GRIDS DOWN OVER SE OK LATE TONIGHT.
UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
LACY
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST WED NOV 27 2024
CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY IN THE 40S AREAWIDE.
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO MAKE IT FEEL COOLER,
WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO CALM TOWARD THE EVENING HOURS AS A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA. A COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS BY FRIDAY MORNING.
A BLOCKING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK WHILE WE REMAIN IN MOSTLY DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS FORECAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO REBOUND SOME BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL USHER IN MORE COLD AIR FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
THIS FRONT WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE
WITH THE LACK OF ANY MOISTURE RETURN TO THE REGION. SUNDAY WILL
AGAIN FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL LEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
AGAIN RETURN TO THE REGION. ANOTHER FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE
REGION TOWARD THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, WITH SOME BETTER
MOISTURE RETURN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA ALLOWING SOME LOW END RAIN CHANCES TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST WED NOV 27 2024
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS LATE THIS EVENING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. AS WE MOVE INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING, MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE AT THE NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 30 46 25 48 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 37 51 28 52 / 10 0 0 0
MLC 33 49 25 53 / 10 0 0 0
BVO 25 46 21 45 / 10 0 0 0
FYV 27 47 21 48 / 20 0 0 0
BYV 30 44 26 44 / 20 0 0 0
MKO 31 46 24 49 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 27 44 22 44 / 20 0 0 0
F10 31 47 24 49 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 40 51 28 53 / 10 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...10
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