861
FXUS64 KTSA 280800
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
200 AM CST THU NOV 28 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST THU NOV 28 2024
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION TODAY,
WITH GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING DECREASING IN
SPEED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH COLDER AIR STILL PUSHING
SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE CHILLY, FEATURING
VALUES AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS IN MOST SPOTS,
DESPITE THE EXPECTATION OF PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST THU NOV 28 2024
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH FULLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, EXPECT
VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS, INCLUDING THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS NEAR
THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS WITH AT LEAST LOW CHANCE OF VALUES
IN THE UPPER TEENS. THE NBM INITIALIZATION FOR TONIGHT'S LOWS HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED USING TRADITIONAL MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN ITS TYPICALLY
BETTER HANDLING OF THESE GOOD RADITIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE A RETURN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST, WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
LIKELY TO RESULT. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY,
WITH THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION STILL EXPECTED TO STAY TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT,
HOWEVER, WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT, DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS SUNDAY AFTER SOME MODERATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY.
THIS COOLDOWN SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED GIVEN A QUICK RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE NEXT WORK
WEEK. INCREASING MOISTURE REMAINS EXPECTED TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK ACROSS MAINLY PARTS OF TEXAS AND ADJACENT GULF COAST
STATES, IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH
THIS MOISTURE SPREADS, AREAS NEAR THE RED RIVER MAY SEE LIGHT RAIN
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE LOW RAIN CHANCES FEATURED BY THE NBM
APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THIS POTENTIAL FOR NOW, INCLUDING THE TREND
OF A LATER IN THE WEEK ARRIVAL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST WED NOV 27 2024
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS LATE THIS EVENING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. AS WE MOVE INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING, MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE AT THE NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 46 25 48 33 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 50 29 51 31 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 48 27 53 33 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 46 21 48 28 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 46 22 46 25 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 44 24 45 30 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 46 25 49 31 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 43 23 44 29 / 0 0 0 0
F10 47 27 51 32 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 50 29 53 32 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...10
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