135
FXUS64 KTSA 290045
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
645 PM CST THU NOV 28 2024
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 644 PM CST THU NOV 28 2024
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL YIELD OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
THE VALLEY SITES (KBVO, KFYV). THE COLDER QUARTILE OF THE MODEL
SPREAD WAS FAVORED BY CONSMOS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, SO NO
REASON FOR ANY BIG CHANGES.
LACY
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST THU NOV 28 2024
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR. COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED WITH TYPICAL
VARIANCE SEEN IN OBSERVING SITE LOCAL EFFECTS.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST THU NOV 28 2024
TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO WARM INTO
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS DRY THROUGH THE REGION WITH ANY
ASSOCIATED PRECIP CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL
REGION. MINOR COOL DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE A NOTABLE
WARMING TREND ENSUES AND LASTS THROUGH LATE WEEK. TEMPS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL APPEAR LIKELY FOR THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY MEANDER NEARER
THE PLAINS BY LATE WEEK. DOWNSTREAM FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY
ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE A STRONGER COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY TIMED TO PASS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DATA CONTINUES TO FAVOR HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA WITH THIS SCENARIO AND THE FORECAST WILL LARGELY
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE LATE NEXT WEEK. THE LATE WEEK FRONT
CONTINUES TO APPEAR RATHER STRONG FAVORING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CST THU NOV 28 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 26 48 33 55 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 28 52 31 56 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 26 53 32 58 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 21 48 28 53 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 21 49 26 53 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 24 46 31 51 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 25 49 31 56 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 24 45 30 52 / 0 0 0 10
F10 26 50 32 57 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 29 53 32 56 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...10
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