565
FXUS64 KTSA 291930
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
130 PM CST FRI NOV 29 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST FRI NOV 29 2024
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH LIGHT WINDS HAVING RETURNED TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION ON ITS BACKSIDE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER IN MOST SPOTS THAN LAST NIGHT GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD BECOME
GUSTY MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS A LOW LEVEL
JET NOSES INTO THAT PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST FRI NOV 29 2024
WINDY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY, IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA MID AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS NEAR
25 MPH FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SHOULD BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WHILE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT, LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION THIS FAR
SOUTH. THE COLDEST AIR BEHIND THE FRONT LOOKS TO STAY TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE BULK OF THE AREA, WITH AREAS NORTH OF I-40 MOST
LIKELY TO SEE NOTICEABLY COOLER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO
AREAS NEAR THE RED RIVER WHICH MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY TIME FRAME, DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK FROM
SUNDAY'S LEVELS. THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS IN QUESTION,
INTRODUCING SOME INCREASED UNCERTAINTY INTO THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY.
THE MAIN NORTHWESTERLY STORM TRACK SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVERALL AND INCREASED MOISTURE. LOW RAIN CHANCES ON
THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY REMAIN APPROPRIATE GIVEN THE TREND OF THE BETTER MOISTURE
JUST GRAZING THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK,
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST FRI NOV 29 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SW LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT, WITH LLWS AT MOST
LOCATIONS INTO MID-MORNING SATURDAY, WITH SFC WIND INCREASING OUT
OF THE SOUTH THEREAFTER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 35 56 28 49 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 30 56 32 54 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 32 58 30 55 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 29 55 24 48 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 26 52 26 51 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 30 51 27 46 / 0 10 0 0
MKO 31 55 29 52 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 30 52 25 46 / 0 10 0 0
F10 33 57 29 53 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 30 56 31 58 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...14
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