323
FXUS64 KTSA 301547
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
947 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2024
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 940 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2024
MID CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH ASSOCIATED
FORCING REMAINING TO THE NORTH. DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
PARTS NORTHEAST OK WITH AN EVENTUAL SHIFT TO NORTH WINDS. IN THE
MEANTIME SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE IN SPOTS,
WITH AN OVERALL DECREASING TREND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TEMPORARILY
WEAKENS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL FORECAST TRENDING
WELL BUT WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CAPTURE CURRENT SKY COVER
AND WINDS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2024
DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO NE OK THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
ONLY MODEST TEMPERATURE FALLS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY AS
WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH. STRONGER WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SUBSIDE
SOME THIS AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2024
DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR SETTLES OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO WARM BY MID WEEK AS THE UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO
SHIFT SOME AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE SW CONUS. THIS
WILL AID TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND AT THIS TIME, AT LEAST LOW
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SE OK AS BETTER MOISTURE JUST MAKES IT FAR
ENOUGH NORTH. ANOTHER FRONT IS POISED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK AND WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 458 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2024
MID LEVEL VFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO EXPAND THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING. SKIES
ARE LIKELY TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST WITH GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING
MID TO LATE MORNING FOR MOST SITES. COLD FRONT PASSES FROM
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH WINDS DECREASING AND TURNING
NORTHWESTERLY. BULK OF GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A CORRIDOR OF STRATUS
AND/OR FOG ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE WEAKENING FRONTAL
ZONE LATE TONIGHT. COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT OF ANY FLIGHT IMPACTS IS
MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN AND FORECAST WILL INTRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS
ACROSS FAR NW AR WITH LATER FORECASTS ADJUSTING ACCORDINGLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 55 27 49 27 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 56 32 54 31 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 57 29 56 28 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 53 23 48 22 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 53 25 50 23 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 51 27 46 25 / 10 0 0 0
MKO 56 29 51 27 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 52 24 45 23 / 10 0 0 0
F10 57 27 52 26 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 57 30 58 30 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...07
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