483
FXUS64 KTSA 301721
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1121 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2024
DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO NE OK THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
ONLY MODEST TEMPERATURE FALLS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY AS
WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH. STRONGER WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SUBSIDE
SOME THIS AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2024
DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR SETTLES OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO WARM BY MID WEEK AS THE UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO
SHIFT SOME AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE SW CONUS. THIS
WILL AID TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND AT THIS TIME, AT LEAST LOW
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SE OK AS BETTER MOISTURE JUST MAKES IT FAR
ENOUGH NORTH. ANOTHER FRONT IS POISED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK AND WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2024
MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH MOST OF
THE EVENING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS PERSIST INTO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PROMPTING WINDS TO DECREASE AND SHRIFT NORTHWEST. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR LOW CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE TONIGHT, HOWEVER CONSENSUS STILL FAVORS A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWEST AR FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 55 27 49 27 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 56 32 54 31 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 57 29 56 28 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 53 23 48 22 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 53 25 50 23 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 51 27 46 25 / 10 0 0 0
MKO 56 29 51 27 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 52 24 45 23 / 10 0 0 0
F10 57 27 52 26 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 57 30 58 30 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...14
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