687
FXUS64 KTSA 302001
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
201 PM CST SAT NOV 30 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CST SAT NOV 30 2024
THE COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA, WITH WINDS ACROSS OSAGE COUNTY SHIFTING TO A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY VERSUS SIMPLY WESTERLY DIRECTION CURRENTLY. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING, LIKELY
CLEARING THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA, WITH EXPECTED LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT IN FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THEY OTHERWISE
WOULD BE. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN PARTS OF FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IS NONZERO, WITH A FEW
OF THE CAMS POINTING IN THAT DIRECTION. OVERALL, THOUGH, THINK
THAT POTENTIAL IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS POINT.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CST SAT NOV 30 2024
THE COLDEST AIR BEHIND TODAY'S FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH AREAS NORTH OF I-40
WILL SEE HIGHS TOMORROW AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY.
THINGS SHOULD STILL REMAIN NEAR TO JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
SOUTH OF I-40. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST
DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT TOMORROW. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY, WITH A SIMILAR NORTH TO SOUTH
GRADIENT IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO SUNDAY EXPECTED TO RESULT.
THE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE MORE
IMPACT ON LOW TEMPERATURES THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE, WITH WIDESPREAD
LOWS RIGHT AROUND 20 DEGREES LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 412. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BY LATE TUESDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING FOR
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON'S
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST OF THE AREA
PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE DAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
RETURN TO OUR SOUTH STILL LOOKS TO GRAZE SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON
WEDNESDAY, SUPPORTING THE CONTINUED LOW POPS OFFERED BY THE NBM.
HOWEVER, THE TREND HAS BEEN A FASTER EXIT IN THIS POTENTIAL THAN
THE NBM DEPICTS. THEREFORE, LOW POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED AFTER
THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND SHOULD RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BEHIND THE
MID WEEK FRONT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2024
MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH MOST OF
THE EVENING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS PERSIST INTO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PROMPTING WINDS TO DECREASE AND SHIFT NORTHWEST. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR LOW CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE TONIGHT, HOWEVER CONSENSUS STILL FAVORS A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWEST AR FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 28 49 28 48 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 33 56 31 56 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 29 56 29 56 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 23 47 23 47 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 25 52 25 51 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 28 47 28 48 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 30 51 29 51 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 26 46 25 45 / 0 0 0 0
F10 28 53 29 53 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 31 59 31 57 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...14
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