006
FXUS64 KTSA 011620
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1020 AM CST SUN DEC 1 2024
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1015 AM CST SUN DEC 1 2024
VISIBILITY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY IMPROVE BENEATH THE STRATUS DECK
OVER NORTHWEST AR, WHILE LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OK. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS
DISSIPATING LOW CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHWEST AR EARLIER, WHILE
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST OTHERWISE. HAVE ADJUSTED TO TAKE
CURRENT CONDITIONS INTO ACCOUNT, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
TRENDS AS ANY AREAS SLOWER TO BREAK OUT WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO
REACH FORECAST HIGH TEMPS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST SUN DEC 1 2024
DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAD PUSHED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
AND WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT SE OK WHERE THE PUSH OF COOLER AIR HAS SLOWED. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE/MOVE EAST AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS TODAY NORTH OF I-40 WILL MOSTLY BE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S, WITH MID TO UPPER 50S TO THE SOUTH OF I-40.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST SUN DEC 1 2024
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL IMPACT MAINLY NE OK AND NW
AR TOMORROW, BUT AGAIN WILL BE SLOW TO IMPACT SE OK AS THESE
LOCATIONS SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES AGAIN BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES BEFORE A WARM UP OCCURS WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
MOISTURE RETURN STILL APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR LOW SHOWER CHANCES
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ACROSS SE OK AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTER A COOL END TO THE WORK
WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM BY NEXT WEEKEND BUT SETTLED
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST
CYCLE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST SUN DEC 1 2024
CORRIDOR OF LOW MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS NE
OK INTO FAR NW AR WHERE PERIODIC LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO BEEN
REPORTED. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT FLIGHT LEVEL IMPACTS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING CLOUDS GRADUALLY ERODING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AREA WIDE. LOW
CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
AR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 49 30 46 23 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 55 33 53 27 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 56 31 53 25 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 48 26 44 19 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 52 28 45 19 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 47 28 43 22 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 52 29 49 23 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 47 28 42 19 / 0 0 0 0
F10 53 31 50 23 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 58 31 58 29 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...07
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