528
FXUS64 KTSA 011958
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
158 PM CST SUN DEC 1 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 158 PM CST SUN DEC 1 2024
- CHILLY DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NORTH MONDAY AND AREAWIDE TUESDAY,
WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT AFTER ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
- LOW (20-40%) CHANCE FOR RAIN IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST SUN DEC 1 2024
STRATUS COVERAGE CONTINUES TO DECREASE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT EARLY MONDAY MORNING EXISTS, AND THE SKY COVER
FORECAST TONIGHT REFLECTS A BLEND OF THE NBM INITIALIZATION AND
ITS 90TH PERCENTILE VALUES. IN ADDITION, FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY AGAIN
OCCUR TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL IN THE CAMS AND MOS GUIDANCE IS
NOT STRONG IN ANY ONE PARTICULAR AREA. HREF PROBABILITIES FOR
VISIBILITIES OF A MILE OR LESS ARE AT MOST 20 PERCENT, MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OUT FOR NOW
GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITIES AND THE INCONSISTENT GUIDANCE SIGNAL.
THE LIKELIHOOD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO ENTER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AROUND DAYBREAK WILL ALSO POINT AWAY FROM FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST SUN DEC 1 2024
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TOMORROW SHOULD BE EITHER ON OUR DOORSTEP OR ALREADY INTO PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER DAY WITH A NOTABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH LOWER 40S ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER AND
UPPER 50S ALONG THE RED RIVER. NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING NEAR 20 MPH
CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN TOMORROW NIGHT. VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
MONDAY NIGHT, WITH PARTS OF THE AREA NORTH OF I-40 DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER TEENS. TUESDAY SHOULD STILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE,
ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS RETURN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE RETURN AND
WIND SPEEDS STAYING UP OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO NOTICEABLY WARMER
OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF IT REACHING ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS MOST
OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. LOW RAIN CHANCES ALSO
EXIST DURING THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHUT
OFF THIS POTENTIAL BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AFTER SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS TO FINISH OUT THE WORK WEEK, WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW RAIN CHANCES ALSO PRECEDE THE
WEEKEND WARMUP FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST SUN DEC 1 2024
STRATUS DECK EXTENDING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME,
IR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KBVO PLUS THE NW AR SITES TO START
THE FORECAST, BUT QUICK IMPROVEMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
INDICATED. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS,
WITH INCREASING NORTH WINDS LATE IN THE PERIOD BEHIND ANOTHER DRY
COLD FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 29 43 21 46 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 31 51 26 49 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 29 49 24 51 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 24 41 18 46 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 25 44 18 47 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 28 43 19 46 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 28 47 22 49 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 27 40 18 45 / 0 0 0 0
F10 29 46 22 50 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 31 57 29 51 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...14
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