493
FXUS64 KTSA 012323
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
523 PM CST SUN DEC 1 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST SUN DEC 1 2024
STRATUS COVERAGE CONTINUES TO DECREASE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT EARLY MONDAY MORNING EXISTS, AND THE SKY COVER
FORECAST TONIGHT REFLECTS A BLEND OF THE NBM INITIALIZATION AND
ITS 90TH PERCENTILE VALUES. IN ADDITION, FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY AGAIN
OCCUR TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL IN THE CAMS AND MOS GUIDANCE IS
NOT STRONG IN ANY ONE PARTICULAR AREA. HREF PROBABILITIES FOR
VISIBILITIES OF A MILE OR LESS ARE AT MOST 20 PERCENT, MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OUT FOR NOW
GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITIES AND THE INCONSISTENT GUIDANCE SIGNAL.
THE LIKELIHOOD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO ENTER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AROUND DAYBREAK WILL ALSO POINT AWAY FROM FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST SUN DEC 1 2024
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TOMORROW SHOULD BE EITHER ON OUR DOORSTEP OR ALREADY INTO PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER DAY WITH A NOTABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH LOWER 40S ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER AND
UPPER 50S ALONG THE RED RIVER. NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING NEAR 20 MPH
CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN TOMORROW NIGHT. VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
MONDAY NIGHT, WITH PARTS OF THE AREA NORTH OF I-40 DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER TEENS. TUESDAY SHOULD STILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE,
ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS RETURN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE RETURN AND
WIND SPEEDS STAYING UP OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO NOTICEABLY WARMER
OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF IT REACHING ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS MOST
OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. LOW RAIN CHANCES ALSO
EXIST DURING THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHUT
OFF THIS POTENTIAL BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AFTER SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS TO FINISH OUT THE WORK WEEK, WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW RAIN CHANCES ALSO PRECEDE THE
WEEKEND WARMUP FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST SUN DEC 1 2024
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING A RETURN TO NORTHERLY
WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NE OK SITES. SOME LOW CLOUDS COULD ALSO MOVE INTO NE OK AND NW AR
BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO REMAIN MINIMAL AT THIS
POINT.
BOWLAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 29 43 21 46 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 31 51 26 49 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 29 49 24 51 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 24 41 18 46 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 25 44 18 47 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 28 43 19 46 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 28 47 22 49 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 27 40 18 45 / 0 0 0 0
F10 29 46 22 50 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 31 57 29 51 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...04
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