302
FXUS64 KTSA 020441
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1041 PM CST SUN DEC 1 2024
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 950 PM CST SUN DEC 1 2024
SHORT TERM FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK THIS EVENING. LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES IN A FEW AREAS GIVEN LATEST
TEMP/DEW-POINT TRENDS. OTHERWISE, NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES
ANTICIPATED. UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST SUN DEC 1 2024
STRATUS COVERAGE CONTINUES TO DECREASE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT EARLY MONDAY MORNING EXISTS, AND THE SKY COVER
FORECAST TONIGHT REFLECTS A BLEND OF THE NBM INITIALIZATION AND
ITS 90TH PERCENTILE VALUES. IN ADDITION, FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY AGAIN
OCCUR TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL IN THE CAMS AND MOS GUIDANCE IS
NOT STRONG IN ANY ONE PARTICULAR AREA. HREF PROBABILITIES FOR
VISIBILITIES OF A MILE OR LESS ARE AT MOST 20 PERCENT, MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OUT FOR NOW
GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITIES AND THE INCONSISTENT GUIDANCE SIGNAL.
THE LIKELIHOOD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO ENTER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AROUND DAYBREAK WILL ALSO POINT AWAY FROM FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST SUN DEC 1 2024
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TOMORROW SHOULD BE EITHER ON OUR DOORSTEP OR ALREADY INTO PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER DAY WITH A NOTABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH LOWER 40S ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER AND
UPPER 50S ALONG THE RED RIVER. NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING NEAR 20 MPH
CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN TOMORROW NIGHT. VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
MONDAY NIGHT, WITH PARTS OF THE AREA NORTH OF I-40 DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER TEENS. TUESDAY SHOULD STILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE,
ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS RETURN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE RETURN AND
WIND SPEEDS STAYING UP OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO NOTICEABLY WARMER
OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF IT REACHING ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS MOST
OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. LOW RAIN CHANCES ALSO
EXIST DURING THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHUT
OFF THIS POTENTIAL BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AFTER SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS TO FINISH OUT THE WORK WEEK, WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW RAIN CHANCES ALSO PRECEDE THE
WEEKEND WARMUP FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST SUN DEC 1 2024
SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, BUT
IMPACTS TO TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME AND
LIMITED PRIMARILY TO MVFR VSBYS AT TIMES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW, BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NE OK SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS COULD
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED.
WINDS WILL CALM AND SKIES WILL CLEAR BY EVENING AS VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL.
BOWLAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 29 43 21 46 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 32 51 26 49 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 29 49 24 51 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 25 41 18 46 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 25 44 18 47 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 29 43 19 46 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 28 47 22 49 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 28 40 18 45 / 0 0 0 0
F10 30 46 22 50 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 32 57 29 51 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...04
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page