914
FXUS64 KTSA 021651
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1051 AM CST MON DEC 2 2024
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1046 AM CST MON DEC 2 2024
AS OF LATE MORNING, A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR A
OKEMAH TO JAY LINE EXTENDING INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH THE AREA AS
THE DAY WEARS ON. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS PRETTY WELL ON
TRACK. ONLY MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO BETTER REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CST MON DEC 2 2024
LATEST OBSERVATION TRENDS SUGGEST ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FREEZING FOG EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF NW AR, BUT WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE VERY LOW COVERAGE
EXPECTED.
REINFORCING PUSH OF COOLER AIR/DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY POISED
TO MOVE INTO NE OK AROUND MID MORNING. THE COOLER AIR WILL BE
SLOWER TO TRANSLATE SOUTH TODAY, THEREFORE NE OK AND NW AR WILL
THE SEE GREATER DIFFERENCES IN HIGH TEMPS TODAY(LOW TO MID 40S)
THAN THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CST MON DEC 2 2024
REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES S-SE OVERNIGHT AND SETTLES
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MO TUESDAY MORNING, THUS RESULTING
IN CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS, ESPECIALLY NE OK AND NW AR.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY QUICKLY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
OVER THE SE CONUS BY TUESDAY EVENING. WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL
ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH LOWER END RAIN CHANCES FOR SE
OK AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ON NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BETTER
MOISTURE THAT WILL BE AHEAD ANOTHER FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE
AREA THURSDAY, BUT AGAIN WILL MODIFY RELATIVELY QUICKLY AS A
WARMING TREND ENSUES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LOW RAIN CHANCES
RETURN TO MAINLY SE OK/WC AR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM CST MON DEC 2 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID
PERIOD AT ALL AREA SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 46 22 47 38 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 54 26 49 34 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 54 24 52 38 / 0 0 0 10
BVO 43 18 46 33 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 47 18 47 32 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 45 19 47 33 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 48 22 49 36 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 42 19 45 34 / 0 0 0 0
F10 50 22 51 37 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 60 28 52 36 / 0 0 0 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...10
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