000
FXUS64 KTSA 031731
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1131 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF TODAY )
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2024
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH SOMEWHAT BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH OF I-40, AND THE LOWER 50S SOUTH
OF THERE. NO RAIN WILL OCCUR TODAY.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2024
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE IN MOST PLACES WEDNESDAY JUST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE RED RIVER,
WHERE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN
WEDNESDAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA,
AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT. FARTHER TO
THE NORTH, ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL
ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. IT WOULD BE NO SURPRISE IF SOME
READINGS SOAR SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE CURRENT FORECAST, BUT WILL
STAY SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES ON HOW FAR
NORTH ANY CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD WEDNESDAY.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, BEFORE A ROBUST WARMING TREND BEGINS
FRIDAY AND PEAKS OVER THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP LOW POPS FRIDAY NIGHT
IN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA FOR NOW, BUT TRENDS IN THE LATEST DATA
SUGGEST PRECIPITATION IS RATHER UNLIKELY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
THE WARMUP OVER THE WEEKEND AGAIN MAY BE EVEN MORE STOUT THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST, BUT UNCERTAINTIES ON CLOUDINESS, ESPECIALLY BY
SUNDAY, PRECLUDE A WARMER FORECAST AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES WILL
RETURN TO SOME PLACES BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL THEN OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
DEPENDING ON FRONTAL TIMING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2024
A POCKET OF 4-6 KFT CEILINGS HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHEAST OK, THESE
CLOUDS WILL SHIFT EAST AND DIMINISH INTO THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE
REST OF TODAY A MIXTURE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE ANTICIPATED
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-15 KTS FOR MOST TERMINALS.
OVERNIGHT, AREAS OF WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP, FOCUSED ACROSS
NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR, WITH SHEAR OF UP TO 45 KTS IN THE
LOWEST 2000 FEET. WIND SHEAR WILL THEN DIMINISH INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
OCCUR NEAR OR SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KMLC TO KFSM. A VERY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM MAY ALSO OCCUR SOUTH OF THIS LINE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 48 40 62 29 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 49 33 61 35 / 0 0 10 0
MLC 53 39 62 34 / 0 0 10 0
BVO 47 35 61 24 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 46 33 60 25 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 47 35 59 26 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 49 37 63 32 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 45 36 59 25 / 0 0 0 0
F10 51 39 64 32 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 52 36 54 38 / 0 0 50 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...06
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