762
FXUS64 KTSA 141056
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
456 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 454 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
- WIDESPREAD UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES (15-25%) FOR PORTIONS OF FAR
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
- HIGH CHANCE OF SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE HOURS OF WELL-BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
ANOTHER MOSTLY PLEASANT DAY WILL OCCUR TODAY ACROSS EASTERN OK
AND NORTHWEST AR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS AND SETTLES OVER
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
THIS MORNING SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY OR SO AND
SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST/WEST-SOUTHWEST TODAY, ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM
UP INTO THE UPPER-40S TO LOWER-50S IN MOST LOCATIONS. OBSERVED TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN OVER PERFORMING COMPARED TO GUIDANCE LAST FEW DAYS, SO
HAVE BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO FROM NBM VALUES.
A WEAK AND MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO FAR NORTHEAST OK AROUND MIDDAY. LATEST MODEL DATA
SHOW THE FRONT CRAWLING SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON, POSITIONING
ITSELF IN THE VICINITY OF HIGHWAY 412 SOMETIME AROUND SUNSET THIS
EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 5-10 MPH. MID-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AND A FEW
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES MAY FALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER. HOWEVER, CHANCES OF THIS OCCURRING
ARE VERY LOW (10%) AND SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER REMAINS DRY AND EVAPORATION MAY OCCUR BEFORE ANY PRECIP
REACHES THE GROUND. BUT IF TEMPERATURES CAN WETBULB, SPRINKLES
AND/OR FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK AND STALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
OK LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT ISN’T
EXPECTED TO BE VERY POWERFUL, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK CLOSER
TO OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE
DAYTIME ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION, AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. INCREASING HEIGHTS AND
LOW/MID-LEVEL WARMING WILL CAUSE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ONCE AGAIN LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE
NBM75TH PERCENTILE VALUES FOR HIGHS BOTH DAYS, WITH WIDESPREAD
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 50S THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY A FEW
60F+ READINGS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LOT
MORE TRICKY ON FRIDAY AS THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS
IN AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK AND
NORTHWEST AR. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MOSTLY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST OK, FAR EASTERN
OK, AND NORTHWEST AR. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PUSH ACROSS
OK AND WESTERN AR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS (FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH) ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD AND AMPLIFY OVER THE
WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE, A
STRONG AND DEEP SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL FURTHER DIG ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND HELP PUSH ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE AREA EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE GUSTY
AND FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES FEEL MUCH COLDER DURING THE
DAYTIME SATURDAY. A STRONG SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL OCCUR
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN THE COLDEST AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
AND WILL SETTLE IN THROUGH MONDAY. AS FOR PRECIPITATION AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL
SUPPORT SNOW BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE VERY LIMITED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WITH THAT SAID, IT IS STILL WORTH NOTING THAT
SNOW/FLURRY CHANCES ARE STILL NON-ZERO. MODELS DO SHOW A COUPLE
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IT’S POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
LIFT AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES BOTH
DAYS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION ANY CHANCE OF SNOW AT
ANY GIVEN LOCATION AT THIS TIME. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE FRIGID
TEMPERATURES OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND 30S AND IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS AT NIGHT BOTH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES FEEL MUCH COLDER. WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL MOSTLY REMAIN IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
BOTH DAYS, WITH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING LOOKING LIKE THE
COLDEST PERIOD IN THE LONG-TERM. WIND CHILL VALUES MAY APPROACH
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY LEVELS FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-40 ON MONDAY
MORNING.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 456 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS. PILOTS CAN EXPECT
SCT TO BKN MID CLOUD WITH CIGS AROUND 10KFT.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 51 21 46 28 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 51 26 48 28 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 52 24 50 28 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 47 15 44 24 / 10 10 0 0
FYV 50 22 48 27 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 48 23 46 29 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 51 24 46 28 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 45 20 42 27 / 10 10 0 0
F10 53 24 49 28 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 52 28 52 28 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...30
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