262
FXUS64 KTSA 141717
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1117 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1111 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
- WIDESPREAD UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES (15-25%) FOR PORTIONS OF FAR
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
- HIGH CHANCE OF CONTINUOUS WELL-BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES FROM
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF TODAY )
ISSUED AT 1038 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OK NEAR NOON TODAY
AND GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL FLIP AROUND TO NORTHERLY AND BECOME SOMEWHAT
BREEZY FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK AND STALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
OK LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT ISN’T
EXPECTED TO BE VERY POWERFUL, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK CLOSER
TO OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE
DAYTIME ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION, AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. INCREASING HEIGHTS AND
LOW/MID-LEVEL WARMING WILL CAUSE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ONCE AGAIN LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE
NBM75TH PERCENTILE VALUES FOR HIGHS BOTH DAYS, WITH WIDESPREAD
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 50S THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY A FEW
60F+ READINGS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LOT
MORE TRICKY ON FRIDAY AS THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS
IN AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK AND
NORTHWEST AR. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MOSTLY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST OK, FAR EASTERN
OK, AND NORTHWEST AR. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PUSH ACROSS
OK AND WESTERN AR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS (FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH) ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD AND AMPLIFY OVER THE
WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE, A
STRONG AND DEEP SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL FURTHER DIG ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND HELP PUSH ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE AREA EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE GUSTY
AND FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES FEEL MUCH COLDER DURING THE
DAYTIME SATURDAY. A STRONG SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL OCCUR
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN THE COLDEST AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
AND WILL SETTLE IN THROUGH MONDAY. AS FOR PRECIPITATION AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL
SUPPORT SNOW BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE VERY LIMITED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WITH THAT SAID, IT IS STILL WORTH NOTING THAT
SNOW/FLURRY CHANCES ARE STILL NON-ZERO. MODELS DO SHOW A COUPLE
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IT’S POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
LIFT AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES BOTH
DAYS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION ANY CHANCE OF SNOW AT
ANY GIVEN LOCATION AT THIS TIME. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE FRIGID
TEMPERATURES OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND 30S AND IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS AT NIGHT BOTH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES FEEL MUCH COLDER. WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL MOSTLY REMAIN IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
BOTH DAYS, WITH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING LOOKING LIKE THE
COLDEST PERIOD IN THE LONG-TERM. WIND CHILL VALUES MAY APPROACH
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY LEVELS FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-40 ON MONDAY
MORNING.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PERIODS OF MID
TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT BY TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO NORTHERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN NORTHEAST OK THIS
AFTERNOON, AND BY THE EVENING ELSEWHERE. GUSTS OF 10-20 KTS WILL
OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 51 21 46 28 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 51 26 48 28 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 52 24 50 28 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 47 15 44 24 / 10 10 0 0
FYV 50 22 48 27 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 48 23 46 29 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 51 24 46 28 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 45 20 42 27 / 10 10 0 0
F10 53 24 49 28 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 52 28 52 28 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...06
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page