289
FXUS64 KTSA 142025
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
225 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 225 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES (15-25%) FOR PORTIONS OF SE OK/NW AR ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
- HIGH CHANCE OF CONTINUOUS WELL-BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES FROM
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON,
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS
NORTH TO UPPER 20S SOUTH.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. FURTHER
SOUTH, IN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, WEST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP EXPECTED THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SE OK/NW AR AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, HOWEVER
OVERALL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED.
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BY SUNDAY MORNING. APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH VALUES JUST
BELOW ZERO, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER.
THE LAST FEW OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER/SLOWER
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT'S POSSIBLE
INITIAL WAVE AHEAD MAIN TROUGH AXIS COULD EVENTUALLY TRACK FURTHER
NORTH, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH
DURING THIS TIME. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, STAYED WITH NBM POPS FOR
NOW WITH NO WINTRY PRECIP MENTIONED, HOWEVER MODEL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PERIODS OF MID
TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT BY TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO NORTHERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN NORTHEAST OK THIS
AFTERNOON, AND BY THE EVENING ELSEWHERE. GUSTS OF 10-20 KTS WILL
OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 51 22 45 30 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 51 24 45 28 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 52 23 47 28 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 48 17 44 25 / 10 0 0 0
FYV 50 22 46 27 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 48 25 45 30 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 51 24 45 29 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 45 20 42 27 / 10 0 0 0
F10 53 25 47 29 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 52 27 50 28 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...06
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