789
FXUS64 KTSA 142322
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
522 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 225 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES (15-25%) FOR PORTIONS OF SE OK/NW AR ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
- HIGH CHANCE OF CONTINUOUS WELL-BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES FROM
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON,
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS
NORTH TO UPPER 20S SOUTH.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. FURTHER
SOUTH, IN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, WEST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP EXPECTED THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SE OK/NW AR AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, HOWEVER
OVERALL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED.
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BY SUNDAY MORNING. APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH VALUES JUST
BELOW ZERO, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER.
THE LAST FEW OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER/SLOWER
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT'S POSSIBLE
INITIAL WAVE AHEAD MAIN TROUGH AXIS COULD EVENTUALLY TRACK FURTHER
NORTH, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH
DURING THIS TIME. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, STAYED WITH NBM POPS FOR
NOW WITH NO WINTRY PRECIP MENTIONED, HOWEVER MODEL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 514 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING & TONIGHT, PROVIDING SOME
LOW-MID CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE WSW TOMORROW MORNING. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT/ TOMORROW
MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS NW AR. CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING IMPACTS TO
TAF SITES, BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE NEXT FORECAST
ISSUANCE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 22 45 30 55 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 24 45 28 53 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 23 47 28 57 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 17 44 25 55 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 22 46 27 52 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 25 45 30 50 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 24 45 29 53 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 20 42 27 50 / 0 0 0 0
F10 25 47 29 57 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 27 50 28 55 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...43
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