220
FXUS64 KTSA 150947
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
347 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 347 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
- IMPACTFUL WEATHER UNLIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY; UNSEASONABLY WARM
THURSDAY & FRIDAY.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES (15-25%) FOR PORTIONS OF FAR E. OK AND NW AR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
- ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
- CONTINUOUS WELL-BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY DRAPED WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS FAR SE
OK, WILL SAG SOUTH AND STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER BY
SUNRISE THIS MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY, KEEPING LOCALLY SURFACE WINDS LIGHT
OUT OF THE NORTH BEFORE TURNING MORE WESTERLY BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON. THOUGH NOT A TON OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE WEAK
FRONT, HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER TODAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR, AND NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES --
GENERALLY UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. A FEW/SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL STICK AROUND TODAY AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
MID-LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD AND LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST CLIMB INTO THE MID-
UPPER 50S AND PERHAPS 60F+ FOR A FEW LOCATIONS BOTH DAYS. FRIDAY’S
TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE MORE TRICKY AS MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER INCREASES DUE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW MAY
AID IN THE PRODUCTION OF A FEW SHOWERS, MOSTLY ACROSS FAR E. OK
AND NW AR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED
(PWATS 0.5-0.8”) AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY, SO ONLY LIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. MANY LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE
ACCUMULATIONS AT ALL. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW, SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AND GUSTY STARTING LATE FRIDAY MORNING,
PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS 30-35 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW, AN ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION, ARRIVING FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND EXITING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY FALL INTO THE LOW-MID
30S/UPPER 20S BEHIND THE POWERFUL FRONT, BUT MAY REBOUND BACK INTO
THE MID-UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE FRONT’S WAKE
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, MAKING TEMPERATURES FEEL LIKE THEY’RE
IN THE 20S AND 30S. WIDESPREAD GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
A STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS
A 1054+MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTHERN
ALBERTA, CANADA. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW FREEZING BY
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. FROM THERE, AMBIENT TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
RISE ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. NORTHERLY WINDS WON’T BE AS STRONG SUNDAY-
TUESDAY, BUT WILL STILL BE BREEZY ENOUGH FOR IMPACTFUL WIND
CHILLS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDEST. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL APPROACH COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY VALUES FOR PORTIONS OF NE OK AND NW AR BOTH
MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, MOISTURE STILL LOOKS TO BE VERY
LIMITED THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SNOW WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY HYDROMETEOR THAT WOULD FALL BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT
THERE JUST DOESN’T SEEM TO BE MUCH LIFT AND MOISTURE BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT. ONLY CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES WILL COME
WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT THAT FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE, FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WILL CONTINUE TO STAY WITH
NBM POPS, WITH NO MENTIONABLE WINTRY PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER, TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED AND POP/WX ADJUSTMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES/UPDATES.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
FOR ALL SITES. A COLD FRONT NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT, VARIABLE WINDS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. LOW-MID CLOUDS MAY TEND TO LINGER INTO THE LATE
OVERNIGHT/ EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE CLEARING FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST DURING THE
DAY, BUT ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 49 30 57 36 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 51 28 55 31 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 53 28 59 36 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 48 25 57 31 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 48 28 53 32 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 48 31 52 32 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 48 29 55 34 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 45 28 52 32 / 0 0 0 0
F10 50 30 58 36 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 53 28 59 34 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...43
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