941
FXUS64 KTSA 160406
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1006 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 246 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
- UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES (15-30%) FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
- ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 935 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH NO CHANGES
ANTICIPATED.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ONGOING
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS,
ALONG WITH A SOUTHWARD PUSHING BAND OF LARGELY MID AND HIGH CLOUD.
EXPECT QUIET CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA, WITH CLEAR SKIES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
THURSDAY WILL START OFF WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE GIVEN
THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH, BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN
AS IT SHIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION, WITH
WESTERN AREAS SEEING THE WARMEST CONDITIONS GIVEN THE QUICKER
RETURN TO SOUTH WINDS. THE WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY AS WELL, WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM LEADING TO INCREASING WINDS DURING THE DAY. EXPECT
GUSTY CONDITIONS, WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-40. INCREASING MOISTURE IN RESPONSE
TO THE LOW LEVEL JET AND THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FOCUSED ACROSS FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
THE MUCH ADVERTISED ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY, WITH WINDS QUICKLY SHIFTING TO A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND ALSO REMAINING GUSTY. WINDS AND WIND GUSTS
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD
FROM THE NBM INITIALIZATIONS, LEVERAGING DATA FROM THE MOS
CONSENSUS AND THE RAW MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDS, RESPECTIVELY. SOME
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY HAS BEEN NOTED, WITH THE NBM PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE
SNOW LARGELY HOLDING IN THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, ALBEIT NOT IMPACTFUL
ONES.
THE VERY COLD AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FULLY MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME AREAS BY MONDAY
MORNING AND HIGHS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING IN MOST SPOTS. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME EXISTS REGARDING
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. MUCH OF THE DATA SHOWS PARTS OF TEXAS MORE AT RISK FOR
THIS THAN AREAS FARTHER NORTH. HOWEVER, SOME DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SHOW A FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION THAT IMPACTS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND THE NBM PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOWS LOW PROBABILITIES
CREEPING INTO THAT PART OF THE FORECAST AREA, TOO. KEEP WATCHING
THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS AS EARLY NEXT WEEK APPROACHES
AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
FOR ALL SITES. A PERIOD OF LLWS IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY BETWEEN
08-14Z WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FOCUSED OVER NW AR (NEAR 40 KTS).
SFC WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS OUT OF THE WEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 31 57 36 60 / 0 0 0 10
FSM 27 55 31 58 / 0 0 0 20
MLC 28 58 36 60 / 0 0 0 10
BVO 27 56 31 60 / 0 0 0 10
FYV 29 54 32 57 / 0 0 0 20
BYV 32 52 32 56 / 0 0 0 20
MKO 29 55 34 58 / 0 0 0 10
MIO 28 52 32 57 / 0 0 0 10
F10 31 57 36 59 / 0 0 0 10
HHW 28 58 34 58 / 0 0 0 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...43
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