964
FXUS64 KTSA 161122
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
522 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 520 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TODAY; UNSEASONABLY WARM AND BREEZY FRIDAY.
- LOW LIGHT RAIN CHANCES (10-30%) FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
- ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
A WARMING TREND IS ALREADY EVIDENT FROM MESONET/SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS E. OK AND NW AR. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY AROUND 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. FURTHER
LOW-LEVEL WARMING IS ANTICIPATED TODAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
UNDER-DO ITS HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, THUS
HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS AGAIN TODAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM
OPERATIONAL NBM VALUES BY BLENDING IN NBM75 AND NBM90. IN GENERAL,
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE MID-UPPER 50S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY REACH OR EXCEED 60F ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 IN OK, AS WELL AS NEAR THE RED RIVER. OTHER
THAN ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR MID-JANUARY, TODAY SHOULD BE
MOSTLY PLEASANT WITH LIGHT & VARIABLE WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. NO WEATHER HAZARDS OR IMPACTS EXPECTED.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND AGAIN
THROUGH THE DAYTIME FRIDAY. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL SLIDE
EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW A MID-LEVEL
LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
OVER WESTERN OK BY MIDDAY. AT THE SURFACE, LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
OCCUR, PRODUCING A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN
RESPONSE, STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AND S/SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS 15-20 MPH WILL BE COMMON AREA-WIDE THROUGH AT LEAST
MID-AFTERNOON, WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY’S
TEMPERATURES, MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES AND THICKENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
AS THE SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN OK, A FEW
TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF E.
OK BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, PUSHING INTO W. AR BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY LINGER ACROSS NW AR THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
LIGHT IN NATURE, HIGHEST AMOUNTS ONLY TOTALING A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND ENTER THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY-MID FRIDAY EVENING, PUSHING
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH AND BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT.
FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAYTIME SATURDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW FLURRIES DEVELOPING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AND CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION ANY
TYPE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REALLY BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS DURING THE DAYTIME SATURDAY AND VERY COLD AIR IS
FORECAST TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET
AFTER SUNSET AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING BY OR
BEFORE MIDNIGHT SATURDAY (INTO SUNDAY MORNING). BRISK NORTHERLY
WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SOME BY SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT, BUT WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THROUGH THE DAYTIME
SUNDAY. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COLDEST BOTH DAYS, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. AT
THIS TIME, IT APPEARS WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO AVOID
REACHING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA THRESHOLDS, BUT THIS WILL
CONTINUED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO HAVE CONSISTENCY ISSUES REGARDING
SNOWFALL CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. STILL THINK THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH
ALOFT. HOWEVER, NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AND STILL DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT AN EXACT LOCATION WHERE FLURRIES WILL FALL AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE S. TX COAST AND
ADVECTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO FAR SE OK. BIGGEST UNKNOWNS ARE
HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE WILL ADVECT AND WHEN EXACTLY THAT WILL
OCCUR. MAINTAINED NBM POPS (15-25%) AND QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR SE
OK FOR NOW, WHICH SHOWS LOW PROBABILITIES AND NO MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL AT THIS TIME. OVERALL, THERE IS STILL LOW FORECAST
CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES BETWEEN SUNDAY-
WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 58 35 60 29 / 0 0 10 0
FSM 58 31 57 35 / 0 0 20 10
MLC 60 36 59 32 / 0 0 20 10
BVO 58 30 61 25 / 0 0 10 0
FYV 56 33 57 28 / 0 0 20 20
BYV 53 34 55 29 / 0 0 30 20
MKO 57 34 58 30 / 0 0 20 10
MIO 53 33 57 27 / 0 0 10 10
F10 59 36 59 30 / 0 0 20 0
HHW 61 35 59 37 / 0 0 20 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...05
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