963
FXUS64 KTSA 162335
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
535 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 527 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
- ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, BRINGING BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH
MID WEEK.
- LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT, TUESDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS HAVE MADE A RETURN TO MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WILL RETURN TO WESTERN ARKANSAS FULLY THIS EVENING. AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, COMBINED WITH
TODAY'S ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY
WARM OVERNIGHT, WITH MID AND UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET WILL FULLY SHIFT OVER AREA DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW, WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
AND GUSTS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS NEAR 35
MPH EXPECTED NORTH OF I-40. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR AGAIN TOMORROW, BUT INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD SERVE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT IN CHECK.
THE MUCH ADVERTISED ARCTIC COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY, WITH THE
COLDEST AIR LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT, CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL BEHIND THE FRONT REMAINS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LIKELY IN THE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY TIME
FRAME, ALTHOUGH EVEN THAT CHANCE IS FAIRLY LOW. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OFFERED BY THE NBM WILL BE MAINTAINED DURING THAT TIME FRAME, BUT
THE OVERALL CHANCE OF IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL IN THAT AREA IS VERY LOW.
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
STORM SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE DATA DO
SHOW A HIGHER CHANCE OF IMPACTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS EVOLUTION ALSO AFFECTS HOW QUICKLY THE AREA STAYS IN
THIS VERY COLD AIR, WITH RECENT DATA SHOWING A NOTABLE WARMUP MID
TO LATE WEEK. NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS WARMUP
JUST YET SO WILL LARGELY MAINTAIN THE TEMPERATURES OFFERED BY THE
NBM WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR UPWARD TWEAKS TO HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME STRONG/GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF ARCTIC COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING. INCREASING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AS 100 KNOT UPPER JET
STREAK SHIFTS EAST INTO NORTH TEXAS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER COVERAGE IS CURRENTLY TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 38 59 30 35 / 0 20 0 0
FSM 31 58 34 43 / 0 40 10 0
MLC 38 60 33 40 / 0 20 10 0
BVO 32 60 26 34 / 0 20 0 0
FYV 30 57 29 38 / 0 30 20 0
BYV 35 55 30 35 / 0 40 20 0
MKO 35 57 31 38 / 0 30 10 0
MIO 35 55 28 33 / 0 20 10 0
F10 37 59 31 38 / 0 30 0 0
HHW 34 58 35 46 / 0 20 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...12
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