000
FXUS64 KTSA 170427
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1027 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 824 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
- ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, BRINGING BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH
MID WEEK.
- LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT,
TUESDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 824 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING AND NO NOTABLE
CHANGES ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING, RELATED TO AN APPROACHING MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ADDITIONALLY, LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST
TONIGHT AS LEE TROUGHING TIGHTENS PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS IS LIKELY TO HOLD LOW TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING
FOR MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS HAVE MADE A RETURN TO MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WILL RETURN TO WESTERN ARKANSAS FULLY THIS EVENING. AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, COMBINED WITH
TODAY'S ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY
WARM OVERNIGHT, WITH MID AND UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET WILL FULLY SHIFT OVER AREA DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW, WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
AND GUSTS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS NEAR 35
MPH EXPECTED NORTH OF I-40. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR AGAIN TOMORROW, BUT INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD SERVE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT IN CHECK.
THE MUCH ADVERTISED ARCTIC COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY, WITH THE
COLDEST AIR LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT, CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL BEHIND THE FRONT REMAINS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LIKELY IN THE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY TIME
FRAME, ALTHOUGH EVEN THAT CHANCE IS FAIRLY LOW. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OFFERED BY THE NBM WILL BE MAINTAINED DURING THAT TIME FRAME, BUT
THE OVERALL CHANCE OF IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL IN THAT AREA IS VERY LOW.
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
STORM SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE DATA DO
SHOW A HIGHER CHANCE OF IMPACTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS EVOLUTION ALSO AFFECTS HOW QUICKLY THE AREA STAYS IN
THIS VERY COLD AIR, WITH RECENT DATA SHOWING A NOTABLE WARMUP MID
TO LATE WEEK. NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS WARMUP
JUST YET SO WILL LARGELY MAINTAIN THE TEMPERATURES OFFERED BY THE
NBM WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR UPWARD TWEAKS TO HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME STRONG/GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF ARCTIC COLD FRONT. INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AS 100 KNOT UPPER JET STREAK SHIFTS
EAST INTO NORTH TEXAS. WITH THE INCREASED LIFT, A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS/LOWER VFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVE
ACROSS NW AR WHERE PROB30 GROUPS WERE ADDED. THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA FRIDAY EVENING WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 58 37 59 30 / 0 0 20 0
FSM 58 30 58 34 / 0 0 40 10
MLC 60 37 60 33 / 0 0 20 10
BVO 59 32 60 26 / 0 0 20 0
FYV 59 32 57 29 / 0 0 30 20
BYV 57 35 55 30 / 0 0 40 20
MKO 61 35 57 31 / 0 0 30 10
MIO 54 34 55 28 / 0 0 20 10
F10 61 36 59 31 / 0 0 30 0
HHW 61 35 58 35 / 0 0 20 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...12
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