457
FXUS64 KTSA 170727
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
127 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 119 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
- AN ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT TO SATURDAY MORNING, BRINGING
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK.
- LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-40 SATURDAY, THEN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 119 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WINDS WILL GUST TO 30-40 MPH.
CONSIDERED ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN MAX GUSTS AND ONLY MARGINALLY REACHING
CRITERIA. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUD COVER AND A
MODEST (20-50%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCE ACROSS NORTHWEST AR. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
MAY ALSO OCCUR OVER NORTHWEST AR (10% CHANCE). OVERALL ANY
ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL, WITH JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT
BEST FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE COLD (OR ARCTIC) FRONT ARRIVES IN THE EVENING FOR NORTHEAST
OK BRINGING A SURGE OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND MUCH COOLER AIR.
THE FRONT WILL THEN SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT OR JUST AFTER.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE AREA INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, BUT AS THE ARCTIC FRONT IS NOT PARTICULARLY SHARP, IT
WILL BE GRADUAL. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S, COLDEST IN THE NORTH.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE LOWS, AS THEY WILL
BE HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. AT
ANY RATE, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS
NEAR FREEZING IN THE NORTH AND IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE
SOUTH.
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING NORTH OF I-40. THE NBM
SEEMINGLY HAS NO IDEA ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY, BUT NUMEROUS GLOBAL
MODELS AND A FEW CAMS HAVE HINTED AT THE CHANCE FOR A FEW DAYS,
SO POPS WERE BOOSTED JUST ENOUGH TO GET A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW IN
THE GRIDS (10-15% CHANCE). HOWEVER, GIVEN WEAK PRECIPITATION
RATES, NO ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED. AS WE GET MORE INTO THE
CAM RANGE TODAY WE WILL BE ABLE TO REFINE THIS MEAGER POSSIBILITY
A BIT BETTER.
ARCTIC COLD CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE AREA SUNDAY, CONTINUING
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH 925 HPA TEMPS -10C OR COLDER FOR THIS PERIOD.
THIS SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
TUESDAY. GENERALLY KEPT NBM LOWS, BUT WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NBM FOR DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE, MOST
NOTABLY THE CMC, CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK DUE TO WARM ADVECTION ALOFT LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. MAINTAINED A MENTION OF FLURRIES FOR THIS PERIOD BUT
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW ON ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT FOR NOW.
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING AND ARCTIC AIR RETREATING TO THE EAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S. CONFIDENCE REALLY DROPS OFF FOR THE TAIL END OF
NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS SUGGESTING ANYTHING FROM ANOTHER BIG COOL
DOWN TO A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP. FOR NOW, MOSTLY SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME STRONG/GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF ARCTIC COLD FRONT. INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AS 100 KNOT UPPER JET STREAK SHIFTS
EAST INTO NORTH TEXAS. WITH THE INCREASED LIFT, A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS/LOWER VFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVE
ACROSS NW AR WHERE PROB30 GROUPS WERE ADDED. THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA FRIDAY EVENING WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 59 28 33 14 / 20 10 10 20
FSM 57 35 41 19 / 40 10 0 10
MLC 59 32 39 16 / 20 10 0 10
BVO 60 24 32 11 / 10 10 10 20
FYV 56 28 35 13 / 50 20 0 20
BYV 57 28 33 14 / 50 30 0 20
MKO 57 29 36 16 / 30 10 10 10
MIO 57 25 31 13 / 30 20 0 20
F10 59 29 36 16 / 30 10 0 10
HHW 59 36 43 21 / 20 10 0 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...12
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