278
FXUS64 KTSA 171958
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
158 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 158 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
- LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- AN ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT TO SATURDAY MORNING, BRINGING
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK.
- LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW FLURRIES NORTH OF I-40 SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING
AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR SE OK.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY MID WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING AHEAD OF ARCTIC FRONT/UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF I-40 THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
VERY COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA BY TOMORROW
MORNING. A SECOND UPPER WAVE MAY RESULT IN FLURRIES OR VERY BRIEF
LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ACROSS NE OK AND NW TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS TIME, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. COLD AIR
WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER WAVE WITHIN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW MAY BRING FLURRIES OR
VERY LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SE OK MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY TOWARDS THE FREEZING MARK
ON TUESDAY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA, WITH A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT
TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGES WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER PASSING WAVE LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD MAY YIELD LOW PRECIP CHANCES FOR SE OK BY
THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THE RULE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS. USED A PROB30 TO COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AT
THE WESTERN ARKANSAS SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AT THE OKLAHOMA SITES WITH THE WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE MORE LIKELY
BEHIND THE FRONT AT THE WESTERN ARKANSAS SITES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 27 34 14 27 / 0 10 0 0
FSM 34 42 19 28 / 10 0 0 0
MLC 31 40 16 30 / 10 0 0 0
BVO 23 32 11 25 / 0 10 0 0
FYV 27 37 13 25 / 10 10 0 0
BYV 28 35 14 20 / 30 10 0 0
MKO 29 37 16 27 / 10 0 0 0
MIO 26 32 13 22 / 20 10 0 0
F10 28 37 16 28 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 35 44 21 32 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...10
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