945
FXUS64 KTSA 172325
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
525 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 506 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
- LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- AN ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT TO SATURDAY MORNING, BRINGING
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK.
- LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW FLURRIES NORTH OF I-40 SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING
AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR SE OK.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY MID WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING AHEAD OF ARCTIC FRONT/UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF I-40 THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
VERY COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA BY TOMORROW
MORNING. A SECOND UPPER WAVE MAY RESULT IN FLURRIES OR VERY BRIEF
LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ACROSS NE OK AND NW TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS TIME, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. COLD AIR
WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER WAVE WITHIN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW MAY BRING FLURRIES OR
VERY LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SE OK MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY TOWARDS THE FREEZING MARK
ON TUESDAY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA, WITH A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT
TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGES WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER PASSING WAVE LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD MAY YIELD LOW PRECIP CHANCES FOR SE OK BY
THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN, CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS,
WILL SHIFT EAST BY EARLY EVENING. ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING WILL MOVING TO NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR
BY 06Z BEFORE SWEEPING SOUTHEAST OF THE REMAINING TAF SITES BY
12Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BEHIND FRONT AND CONTINUE
INTO THE DAY SATURDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CEILINGS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL
VORT MAX. PROB30 GROUPS WERE ADDED LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
(AFTER 22Z).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 27 32 14 27 / 0 20 10 0
FSM 34 38 19 28 / 10 0 30 0
MLC 31 36 16 30 / 10 0 10 0
BVO 23 30 11 25 / 0 20 10 0
FYV 27 32 13 25 / 10 20 30 0
BYV 28 32 14 20 / 30 20 30 0
MKO 29 34 16 27 / 10 20 20 0
MIO 26 31 13 22 / 20 20 10 0
F10 28 32 16 28 / 0 20 20 0
HHW 35 41 21 32 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...12
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