670
FXUS64 KTSA 180426
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1026 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1026 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
- AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING, BRINGING BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH
MID WEEK.
- LOW-MEDIUM CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN BELOW HALF AN INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS, THOUGH
ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NW AR.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY MID WEEK.
UPDATE
(TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 846 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FA THIS EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE MAKES STEADY PROGRESS
EASTWARD. MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER FAR E
OK/ NW AR THIS EVENING/ EARLY TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY VORT MAX
ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT-CHANCE POPS AS A
RESULT, THOUGH QPF SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL. TONIGHT'S ARCTIC FRONT
IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH N-CENTRAL OK AND SE KS, AND HAS
ENTERED OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES AS OF WRITING. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BRINGING A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS AND GUSTY WINDS WITH IT. HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES & WINDS TO BETTER MATCH
LATEST TRENDS & SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION TOMORROW BRINGING A CHANCE
OF FLURRIES/ SNOW TO AT LEAST NE OK & NW AR. BASED ON MOST RECENT
GUIDANCE, HAVE INCREASED POPS AND QPF IN THIS AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON & EVENING HOURS. IF LATEST GUIDANCE HOLDS, POPS WILL
PROBABLY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AND INCREASED FURTHER WITH THE
OVERNIGHT FCST PACKAGE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW HALF AN INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER,
A FEW SPOTS IN NW AR MAY SEE TOTALS UP TO AN INCH... PRIMARILY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER QPF IS FAVORED. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO OTHER CHANGES
REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING AHEAD OF ARCTIC FRONT/UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF I-40 THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
VERY COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA BY TOMORROW
MORNING. A SECOND UPPER WAVE MAY RESULT IN FLURRIES OR VERY BRIEF
LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ACROSS NE OK AND NW TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS TIME, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. COLD AIR
WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER WAVE WITHIN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW MAY BRING FLURRIES OR
VERY LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SE OK MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY TOWARDS THE FREEZING MARK
ON TUESDAY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA, WITH A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT
TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGES WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER PASSING WAVE LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD MAY YIELD LOW PRECIP CHANCES FOR SE OK BY
THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
A FEW LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS. ARCTIC COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST
NORTH OF I-44, WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS QUICKLY DEVELOPING BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MID/LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL VORT MAX. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE CONCERNING SNOW ONSET/DURATION.
VISIBILITIES COULD FALL TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN
THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 31 32 14 27 / 0 20 10 0
FSM 37 38 19 28 / 20 0 30 0
MLC 35 36 16 30 / 10 0 10 0
BVO 29 30 11 25 / 0 20 10 0
FYV 31 32 13 25 / 20 20 30 0
BYV 31 32 14 20 / 30 20 30 0
MKO 33 34 16 27 / 10 20 20 0
MIO 30 31 13 22 / 20 20 10 0
F10 31 32 16 28 / 0 20 20 0
HHW 39 41 21 32 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...12
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