510
FXUS64 KTSA 181000
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
400 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 326 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
- LOW-MEDIUM CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW HALF AN
INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS, THOUGH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO AN INCH
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS TODAY INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND THIS EVENING)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA,
WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND GRADUALLY FALLING TEMPERATURES IN ITS
WAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH TODAY, AND THE GUSTY WINDS
WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AS WELL AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES, AND SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. A DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
WILL RESULT IN ONLY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY A DUSTING
TO ONE HALF INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO INCH MAY
OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
THE SNOW WILL BE ENDING OVERNIGHT, FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS DESPITE
CONTINUED GUSTY NORTH WINDS. AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY, A FEW
LOCALIZED AREAS MAY SEE APPARENT TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY LEVELS.
THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT THE
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LIGHTEN UP BY LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, BUT ONCE AGAIN LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE WEDNESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
BACK CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
A FEW LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS. ARCTIC COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST
NORTH OF I-44, WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS QUICKLY DEVELOPING BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MID/LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL VORT MAX. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE CONCERNING SNOW ONSET/DURATION.
VISIBILITIES COULD FALL TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN
THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 32 15 28 13 / 20 20 0 0
FSM 41 19 30 12 / 10 20 0 0
MLC 38 17 30 11 / 10 20 0 0
BVO 30 12 26 10 / 10 10 0 0
FYV 34 14 24 8 / 10 30 0 0
BYV 33 14 23 7 / 10 30 0 0
MKO 35 16 29 12 / 20 20 0 0
MIO 30 14 24 8 / 10 10 0 0
F10 35 16 29 12 / 20 20 0 0
HHW 42 20 33 15 / 10 10 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...12
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page