828
FXUS64 KTSA 181637
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1037 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 326 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
- LOW-MEDIUM CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW HALF AN
INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS, THOUGH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO AN INCH
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS TODAY INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF TODAY )
ISSUED AT 1034 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM
THROUGH THE DAY IN WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT. CLOUD COVER HAS
ALREADY SPREAD INTO NE OK AND WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EAST AND
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT RADAR ECHOES NOTED OVER NORTH
CENTRAL OK SPREADING EASTWARD,HOWEVER 12Z KOUN SOUNDING SAMPLED
DEEP MID LEVEL DRY AIR WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL
UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A
NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. UPDATE
WILL INCORPORATE OBSERVED TRENDS.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
THE SNOW WILL BE ENDING OVERNIGHT, FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS DESPITE
CONTINUED GUSTY NORTH WINDS. AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY, A FEW
LOCALIZED AREAS MAY SEE APPARENT TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY LEVELS.
THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT THE
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LIGHTEN UP BY LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, BUT ONCE AGAIN LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE WEDNESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
BACK CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 512 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
BREEZY NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 15-25 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD WITH A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS. CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP AND LOWER TO AROUND 6-9 KFT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST AR.
WITHIN ANY SNOW BANDS VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS MAY LOWER THOUGH
ACCUMULATION WILL MOSTLY BE MINIMAL. SKIES WILL CLEAR UP
OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 32 15 28 13 / 20 20 0 0
FSM 41 19 30 12 / 10 20 0 0
MLC 38 17 30 11 / 10 20 0 0
BVO 30 12 26 10 / 10 10 0 0
FYV 35 14 24 8 / 10 30 0 0
BYV 34 14 23 7 / 10 30 0 0
MKO 35 16 29 12 / 20 20 0 0
MIO 30 14 24 8 / 10 10 0 0
F10 35 16 29 12 / 20 20 0 0
HHW 42 20 33 15 / 10 10 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...06
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