349
FXUS64 KTSA 190123
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
723 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 722 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
- BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST OK AND WEST-CENTRAL AR
INTO THIS EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
BELOW HALF AN INCH.
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 722 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SET UP JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF TULSA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, AND IT HAS SINCE SHIFTED SOUTH AND EAST FROM THERE
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON IT, SO THE
FORECAST POPS/QPF/SNOWAMT ARE HEAVILY BASED ON HRRR DATA FOR THE
EVENING. VSBYS BENEATH THE BAND HAVE BEEN 3 TO 4 MILES FOR THE
MOST PART, WITH A BRIEF 2 MILE REPORT AT STIGLER. THE SNOW WILL
HAVE TO GET HEAVIER TO GET SOME ACCUMULATION. SOME LIGHT ACCUMS
(LESS THAN A HALF INCH) COULD OCCUR BENEATH THE BAND AS IT
CONTINUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
BASED ON THE LATEST WIND/GUST DATA, THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WAS
EXPANDED A LITTLE WEST INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA FOR WIND CHILLS
NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO BY SUNDAY MORNING.
LACY
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY NE OK THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP SHIFTING ACROSS NE OK AND INTO NW AR THIS
EVENING. ANY MEASURABLE SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN
LIMITED, AND MAINLY RELEGATED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW AR.
ADDITIONALLY, GUSTY NORTHERLY AND THE COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 0 AND -5 ACROSS FAR NW
AR OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED EFFECTIVE FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 10 AM
SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE LATER
IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALONG WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL
BRING LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF E OK MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT. THE DEEP CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW
PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY BY LATER IN THE WEEK, AND WILL AID IN
BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES TO THE
AREA LATER IN THE WORK WEEK, AND NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 507 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES NEAR I-40 IN EASTERN OK. LATEST
TRENDS SUGGEST THIS BAND WILL SET UP A BIT FARTHER SOUTH, AND THUS
LOWER SNOW CHANCES AT KXNA/KROG, AND HAVE ALSO ADDED A PROB30 AT
KMLC. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF HEAVIEST BAND, WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING AT KFYV/KFSM.
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR BY LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 15 28 12 30 / 10 0 0 0
FSM 19 31 14 31 / 30 0 0 0
MLC 17 31 14 31 / 10 0 0 0
BVO 12 27 9 28 / 10 0 0 0
FYV 12 25 8 29 / 10 0 0 0
BYV 13 23 9 25 / 10 0 0 0
MKO 16 28 14 30 / 20 0 0 0
MIO 13 23 10 26 / 10 0 0 0
F10 16 30 15 31 / 10 0 0 0
HHW 20 33 17 33 / 10 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY
FOR OKZ063-069.
AR...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY
FOR ARZ001-002-010-011.
UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...14
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