849
FXUS64 KTSA 200351
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
951 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 946 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
- LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING, WITH LITTLE
OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 850 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES
OVER THE REGION. SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS AND THIS MAY KEEP TEMPS FROM
COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT IN THIS VERY COLD AIRMASS. STILL EXPECT
SINGLE DIGITS AS FORECAST ACROSS NORTHWEST AR AND NORTHEAST OK, AS
WELL AS SHELTERED VALLEYS OF SE OK. FORECAST CONTINUE TO TREND
WELL AND NO UPDATES NECESSARY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL RELAX, AND UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL
RESULT IN SINGLE DIGIT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF FAR
NE OK AND NW AR. THE LIGHT WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
WILL PRECLUDE MEETING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TOMORROW, AHEAD
THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN UPPER WAVE THAT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT ON KEEPING ANY AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ANY MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AFTER
ANOTHER COLD DAY TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP CLOSER
TO SEASONAL AVERAGES STARTING WEDNESDAY. A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND, THOUGH RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN TO PARTS
OF THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM 00Z FORECAST.
HIGH CLOUD CIGS OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MID CLOUD CIG
AROUND 10KFT DURING THE DAY MONDAY. CIGS WILL LOWER FURTHER BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING TO AROUND 5KFT. ADDED A PROB30
FOR SOME MVFR LIGHT SNOW TO THE NE OK SITES 21Z TO 03Z TOMORROW
EVENING.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 11 27 10 29 / 0 10 10 0
FSM 14 30 18 30 / 0 10 10 0
MLC 12 30 13 31 / 0 10 20 0
BVO 7 25 5 29 / 0 10 10 0
FYV 5 28 9 26 / 0 10 10 0
BYV 6 23 9 24 / 0 10 10 0
MKO 13 28 13 29 / 0 10 10 0
MIO 7 23 8 26 / 0 10 10 0
F10 12 29 12 31 / 0 10 20 0
HHW 15 31 20 32 / 0 10 20 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...30
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