704
FXUS64 KTSA 201004
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
404 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 335 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
- LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH LITTLE
OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND THIS EVENING)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY, WITH LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
FLURRIES SPREADING INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON. A VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE OR
NO SNOW ACCUMULATION, WITH PERHAPS ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO A
QUARTER INCH OR SO IN A FEW SPOTS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH EVEN DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL FORCE ANY
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO ADVECT MORE SOUTH THAN EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS, WITH AGAIN LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL END OVERNIGHT, WITH CLEARING SKIES
FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED, AND HAVE
ISSUED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS, WHERE WIND CHILL VALUES BY MORNING WILL LIKELY FALL JUST
BELOW ZERO.
AFTER ANOTHER COLD DAY TUESDAY, A WARMUP WILL COMMENCE WEDNESDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, BY WHICH TIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY,
BUT IT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD AS THE CURRENT AIRMASS. MODEL
DIFFERENCES INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH REGARD TO
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL, SO STAYED WITH THE NBM POPS FOR NOW. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM 00Z FORECAST.
HIGH CLOUD CIGS OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MID CLOUD CIG
AROUND 10KFT DURING THE DAY MONDAY. CIGS WILL LOWER FURTHER BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING TO AROUND 5KFT. ADDED A PROB30
FOR SOME MVFR LIGHT SNOW TO THE NE OK SITES 21Z TO 03Z TOMORROW
EVENING.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 26 10 29 23 / 20 20 0 0
FSM 30 15 29 17 / 10 10 0 0
MLC 29 12 31 20 / 10 20 0 0
BVO 24 6 29 18 / 20 20 0 0
FYV 26 8 25 14 / 10 10 0 0
BYV 23 7 23 16 / 10 10 0 0
MKO 28 11 29 20 / 10 20 0 0
MIO 23 5 25 19 / 10 10 0 0
F10 28 11 30 21 / 20 20 0 0
HHW 31 18 32 18 / 10 20 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR ARZ002-011.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...30
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