171  
FXUS64 KTSA 201104  
AFDTSA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK  
504 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
UPDATED AT 500 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025  
 
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.  
 
- LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN  
PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH LITTLE  
OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.  
 
- WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TODAY AND THIS EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025  
 
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY, WITH LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW  
FLURRIES SPREADING INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS  
AFTERNOON. A VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE OR  
NO SNOW ACCUMULATION, WITH PERHAPS ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO A  
QUARTER INCH OR SO IN A FEW SPOTS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES  
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S.  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING, WITH EVEN DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL FORCE ANY  
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO ADVECT MORE SOUTH THAN EAST THROUGH THE  
EVENING HOURS, WITH AGAIN LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION  
EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025  
 
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL END OVERNIGHT, WITH CLEARING SKIES  
FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED, AND HAVE  
ISSUED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF FAR NORTHWEST  
ARKANSAS, WHERE WIND CHILL VALUES BY MORNING WILL LIKELY FALL JUST  
BELOW ZERO.  
 
AFTER ANOTHER COLD DAY TUESDAY, A WARMUP WILL COMMENCE WEDNESDAY  
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, BY WHICH TIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS  
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY,  
BUT IT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD AS THE CURRENT AIRMASS. MODEL  
DIFFERENCES INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH REGARD TO  
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL, SO STAYED WITH THE NBM POPS FOR NOW. ANY  
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025  
 
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AND LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON,  
EVENTUALLY SETTLING AROUND 5-6 KFT FOR MOST AREAS BY MID  
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST, BUT  
WITH LONG PERIODS OF LIGHTER SPEEDS AND VARIABLE DIRECTION.  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH KBVO DURING THE EARLY EVENING,  
GRADUALLY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT.  
BEHIND THE FRONT A SHORT BURST OF GUSTIER NORTH WINDS WILL  
COMMENCE, WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.  
ADDITIONALLY, AREAS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL MAY DEVELOP. THE MOST LIKELY  
AREA IS KBVO (20-30% CHANCE), WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR THE TULSA  
AREA TERMINALS AND KMLC (10-20% CHANCE). THE IMPACTS WOULD BE  
BRIEFLY LOWERED VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS BUT LITTLE IF ANY  
ACCUMULATION. SKIES CLEAR FOR TUESDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TUL 26 10 29 23 / 20 20 0 0  
FSM 30 15 29 17 / 10 10 0 0  
MLC 29 12 31 20 / 10 20 0 0  
BVO 24 6 29 18 / 20 20 0 0  
FYV 26 8 25 14 / 10 10 0 0  
BYV 23 7 23 16 / 10 10 0 0  
MKO 28 11 29 20 / 10 20 0 0  
MIO 23 5 25 19 / 10 10 0 0  
F10 28 11 30 21 / 20 20 0 0  
HHW 31 18 32 18 / 10 20 0 0  
 

 
   
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
AR...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY  
FOR ARZ002-011.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...05  
LONG TERM....05  
AVIATION...06  
 
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