460
FXUS64 KTSA 201744
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1144 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1142 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
- LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH LITTLE
OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF TODAY )
ISSUED AT 1037 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
LIGHT RADAR ECHOES SLOWLY SPREADING INTO NE OK BUT DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR SAMPLED ON REGIONAL 12Z RAOBS HAVE, SO FAR, PREVENTED ANY SNOW
REPORTS. THIS TREND IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
AND THEN MAYBE SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN FOR AREAS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75. THE TREND IN GUIDANCE REMAINS FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW TO
SPREAD MORE SOUTHWARD WITH TIME AND ANY LIGHT AMOUNTS LIKELY
REMAIN ACROSS E OK THROUGH THE EVENING. NO TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED. COLD TEMPS CONTINUE AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WILL ENSURE SUB FREEZING TEMPS CONTINUE. THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE UPDATE.
LONG TERM
(OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL END OVERNIGHT, WITH CLEARING SKIES
FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED, AND HAVE
ISSUED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS, WHERE WIND CHILL VALUES BY MORNING WILL LIKELY FALL JUST
BELOW ZERO.
AFTER ANOTHER COLD DAY TUESDAY, A WARMUP WILL COMMENCE WEDNESDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, BY WHICH TIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY,
BUT IT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD AS THE CURRENT AIRMASS. MODEL
DIFFERENCES INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH REGARD TO
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL, SO STAYED WITH THE NBM POPS FOR NOW. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
CLOUD COVER WILL STEADILY THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR CATEGORY FOR MOST SITES. LIGHT SNOW
WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF E OK THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND/OR CEILINGS IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT ANY FLIGHT IMPACT SHOULD BE BRIEF.
CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 26 10 29 23 / 20 20 0 0
FSM 30 15 29 17 / 10 10 0 0
MLC 29 12 31 20 / 10 20 0 0
BVO 24 6 29 18 / 20 20 0 0
FYV 26 8 25 14 / 10 10 0 0
BYV 23 7 23 16 / 10 10 0 0
MKO 28 11 29 20 / 10 20 0 0
MIO 23 5 25 19 / 10 10 0 0
F10 28 11 30 21 / 20 20 0 0
HHW 31 18 32 18 / 10 20 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR ARZ002-011.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...07
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