066
FXUS64 KTSA 160502
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1102 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 201 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
- LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCE OF MINOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS THIS EVENING.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW STILL LIKELY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
- LIFE-THREATENING COLD TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS A
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF EXTREME COLD WARNINGS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 634 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD
ACROSS NE OK AND POSSIBLY FAR NW AR THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MORNING HOURS. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH
FOR MOST LOCALS, HOWEVER ROAD CONDITIONS REPORTS SUGGEST TRAVEL
IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE AND AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED TO ADDRESS
THIS IMPACT. UPDATED FORECAST ADJUSTED FOR OBSERVED TEMP AND
PRECIP COVERAGE TRENDS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE AREA AS WE MOVE INTO THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS CONTINUE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO EXIT TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SWEEPS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BEFORE
ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH
WITH A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTTY AREAS. THERE IS LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCE OF MINOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. WILL NOT
ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BUT A SHORT-TERM ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AS
THE EVENT UNFOLDS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE OFFING FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES REBOUND SLIGHTLY
ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS SET TO BLAST THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A BOUT OF WINTRY WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. IMPACTFUL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THIS TIME. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TO THE NORTH OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING AND INTENSIFYING TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ADVANCES INTO THE PLAINS RESULTING INTO WIDESPREAD WINTRY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL MOSTLY AS SNOW NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 412 WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW TAKING PLACE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE DAY
ROLLS ON. A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER
INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH. ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD ALSO BE OF
CONCERN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 412. WITH THE EVENT STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT, IT IS TOO EARLY
FOR EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL WINTER
WEATHER IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
IN ADDITION TO THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION, LIFE-THREATENING COLD CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING LIKELY
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WIND CHILL VALUES OF BELOW ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH VALUES AS LOW AS -20 POSSIBLE NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER.
TEMPERATURES ARE FINALLY FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA AS WE MOVE INTO
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE AS
THE SNOW BAND MOVES THROUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
OTHERWISE...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS THE CWA WHILE THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING MID LEVEL
WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DURING THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST LIFT BACK TO VFR WITH
CLOUD COVER SCATTERING OUT. SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
START OUT GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTH AND WEAKEN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 18 35 18 44 / 40 0 0 0
FSM 25 39 23 48 / 40 0 0 0
MLC 22 39 21 49 / 30 0 0 0
BVO 15 33 14 41 / 10 0 0 0
FYV 18 33 17 45 / 80 0 0 0
BYV 19 31 17 42 / 80 0 0 0
MKO 20 35 20 47 / 50 0 0 0
MIO 17 29 16 41 / 80 0 0 0
F10 20 36 21 47 / 40 0 0 0
HHW 25 42 24 50 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST SUNDAY FOR OKZ057-058-062-
063-067>071.
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-
011.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...20
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