516
FXUS64 KTSA 160935
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
335 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 311 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
- ACCUMULATING SNOW STILL LIKELY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS, WHERE A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE FOR HEAVY SNOW (>4
INCHES) EXISTS.
- LIFE-THREATENING COLD TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE OF EXTREME COLD WARNINGS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
A COLD DAY IS ON TAP TODAY WITH CLEARING SKIES. GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE RED RIVER.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
A BRIEF WARMUP IS EXPECTED MONDAY, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SETTING THE STAGE FOR A WINTER STORM.
HEAVY SNOW WILL BE LIKELY NEAR AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412, WITH A
WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO SNOW FARTHER SOUTH. A WINTER STORM WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, WHERE THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR OVER 4 INCHES OF SNOW EXISTS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME PLACES TO RECEIVE GREATER THAN 8 INCHES OF SNOW. WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES, CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW WILL ALSO OCCUR.
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LOWER SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 412, WITH MIXED
PRECIPITATION INITIALLY LIMITING THE THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW.
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THOUGH
AS AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL ICE AND/OR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIKELY AT LEAST AS FAR SOUTH AS MCALESTER AND FORT SMITH.
BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL EXIST TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, AND EXTREME COLD HEADLINES WILL EVENTUALLY
BE NEEDED FOR PARTS IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A RAPID WARMUP LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE NEXT WEEKEND, WITH THE
FOLLOWING WEEK LOOKING LIKE IT MAY WELL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM,
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE WELCOMED BY MOST OF US.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE AS
THE SNOW BAND MOVES THROUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
OTHERWISE...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS THE CWA WHILE THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING MID LEVEL
WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DURING THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST LIFT BACK TO VFR WITH
CLOUD COVER SCATTERING OUT. SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
START OUT GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTH AND WEAKEN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 35 18 45 20 / 0 0 0 20
FSM 40 21 49 33 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 39 20 50 32 / 0 0 0 10
BVO 33 12 43 15 / 0 0 0 30
FYV 32 14 45 25 / 0 0 0 10
BYV 31 15 43 21 / 0 0 0 10
MKO 35 19 48 29 / 0 0 0 10
MIO 29 14 43 18 / 0 0 0 20
F10 37 19 48 26 / 0 0 0 20
HHW 42 23 50 36 / 0 0 0 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR OKZ054>064-067>069.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR ARZ001-002-010-011.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...20
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