598
FXUS64 KTSA 161710
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1110 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 311 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
- ACCUMULATING SNOW STILL LIKELY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS, WHERE A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE FOR HEAVY SNOW (>4
INCHES) EXISTS.
- LIFE-THREATENING COLD TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE OF EXTREME COLD WARNINGS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF TODAY)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
LOW CLOUDS ARE LINGERING ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, AS PER USUAL, WITH REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES STILL BEING OBSERVED IN THAT AREA. EARLIER UPDATES
INSERTED BOTH A MENTION OF SCATTERED FLURRIES AND WHERE
VISIBILITIES DROPPED TO 3 TO 4 MILES, A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A TENTH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION. AN EARLIER SKY COVER
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON MAY NOT HAVE
BEEN ENOUGH SO WILL LIKELY INCREASE SKY COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON
WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE HANGING ON STILL. MAY ALSO EXTEND THE
FLURRIES MENTION IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS WELL. TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE RUNNING NEAR THE FORECAST VALUES
SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO HIGHS TODAY ARE PLANNED, BUT MINOR
TWEAKS BENEATH THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE FORTHCOMING.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
A BRIEF WARMUP IS EXPECTED MONDAY, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SETTING THE STAGE FOR A WINTER STORM.
HEAVY SNOW WILL BE LIKELY NEAR AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412, WITH A
WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO SNOW FARTHER SOUTH. A WINTER STORM WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, WHERE THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR OVER 4 INCHES OF SNOW EXISTS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME PLACES TO RECEIVE GREATER THAN 8 INCHES OF SNOW. WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES, CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW WILL ALSO OCCUR.
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LOWER SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 412, WITH MIXED
PRECIPITATION INITIALLY LIMITING THE THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW.
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THOUGH
AS AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL ICE AND/OR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIKELY AT LEAST AS FAR SOUTH AS MCALESTER AND FORT SMITH.
BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL EXIST TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, AND EXTREME COLD HEADLINES WILL EVENTUALLY
BE NEEDED FOR PARTS IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A RAPID WARMUP LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE NEXT WEEKEND, WITH THE
FOLLOWING WEEK LOOKING LIKE IT MAY WELL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM,
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE WELCOMED BY MOST OF US.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST AT THE NW AR SITES AND LIKELY WILL INTO MID
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE NO LONGER
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH FLURRIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME
AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH THE
PERIOD THEREAFTER. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING, WITH
A SOUTH WIND RETURNING EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FSM LATE IN THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 35 20 46 24 / 0 0 0 30
FSM 40 24 50 31 / 10 0 0 0
MLC 39 23 51 33 / 0 0 0 10
BVO 33 15 44 15 / 0 0 0 30
FYV 31 18 46 26 / 20 0 0 10
BYV 30 17 44 24 / 20 0 0 10
MKO 35 20 48 31 / 0 0 0 10
MIO 29 16 44 20 / 20 0 0 30
F10 37 21 49 31 / 0 0 0 20
HHW 42 25 50 36 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR OKZ054>064-067>069.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR ARZ001-002-010-011.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...22
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