893
FXUS64 KTSA 162332
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
532 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 218 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
- ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS, WHERE A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE FOR HEAVY SNOW (>4
INCHES) EXISTS.
- LIFE-THREATENING COLD TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE OF EXTREME COLD WARNINGS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
A QUIET NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH THE AID OF
SOUTHERLY BREEZE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS SET TO SURGE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LIFT FURTHER ENHANCED BY
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS. A HEAVIER BAND OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER IN THE ZONE OF
GREATEST LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. MODERATE TO MAJOR
IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS ZONE WHERE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS ZONE WILL LIKELY SET UP TO THE NORTH OF HIGHWAY
412 WITH LESSER SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH. THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START AS A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW. THE TRANSITION
WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS WE MOVE INTO THE
EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO COME AN END LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY WITH ADVISORIES
NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINING AREA.
THE OTHER BIG STORY WILL BE THE LIFE-THREATENING COLD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AN EXTREME COLD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH WIND CHILL VALUES
BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY
MORNING. WIND CHILL VALUES COULD BE AS COLD AS -20 NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER. TEMPERATURES WARM UP OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 532 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
ONGOING MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SCATTER OUT EARLY THIS EVENING, LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR TO SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DURING THE DAY
MONDAY, SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE CWA WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED MID CLOUDS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
EAST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ONCE THE MVFR CEILINGS EXIT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 20 46 25 26 / 0 0 30 100
FSM 24 50 32 35 / 0 0 0 90
MLC 23 51 35 37 / 0 0 10 100
BVO 15 44 17 21 / 0 0 30 100
FYV 18 46 28 33 / 0 0 10 90
BYV 17 44 24 26 / 0 0 10 90
MKO 20 48 32 33 / 0 0 10 100
MIO 16 44 22 23 / 0 0 30 100
F10 21 49 32 33 / 0 0 20 100
HHW 25 50 37 39 / 0 0 0 100
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR OKZ054>064-067>069.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR OKZ049-053>076.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR ARZ001-002-010-011.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...20
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