093
FXUS64 KTSA 170455
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1055 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 218 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
- ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS, WHERE A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE FOR HEAVY SNOW (>4
INCHES) EXISTS.
- LIFE-THREATENING COLD TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE OF EXTREME COLD WARNINGS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 841 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
SFC RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHT
WINDS PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN SOMEWHAT BUT STILL EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL INFLUENCES
RESULTING IN COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. UPDATE WILL INCORPORATE OBSERVED
TRENDS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH THE AID OF
SOUTHERLY BREEZE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS SET TO SURGE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LIFT FURTHER ENHANCED BY
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS. A HEAVIER BAND OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER IN THE ZONE OF
GREATEST LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. MODERATE TO MAJOR
IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS ZONE WHERE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS ZONE WILL LIKELY SET UP TO THE NORTH OF HIGHWAY
412 WITH LESSER SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH. THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START AS A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW. THE TRANSITION
WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS WE MOVE INTO THE
EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO COME AN END LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY WITH ADVISORIES
NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINING AREA.
THE OTHER BIG STORY WILL BE THE LIFE-THREATENING COLD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AN EXTREME COLD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH WIND CHILL VALUES
BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY
MORNING. WIND CHILL VALUES COULD BE AS COLD AS -20 NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER. TEMPERATURES WARM UP OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL REMAIN COMMON FOR THE
CWA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DURING THE DAY MONDAY, SCATTERED TO BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS AND WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH ARE FORECAST.
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WINDS WITH THIS
BOUNDARY LOOK TO BECOME MORE NORTHEAST, WHILE EASTERLY WINDS
RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP JUST OUTSIDE OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 20 46 25 26 / 0 0 30 100
FSM 24 50 32 35 / 0 0 0 90
MLC 23 51 35 37 / 0 0 10 100
BVO 15 44 17 21 / 0 0 30 100
FYV 18 46 28 33 / 0 0 10 90
BYV 17 44 24 26 / 0 0 10 90
MKO 20 48 32 33 / 0 0 10 100
MIO 16 44 22 23 / 0 0 30 100
F10 21 49 32 33 / 0 0 20 100
HHW 25 50 37 39 / 0 0 0 100
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR OKZ054>064-067>069.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR OKZ049-053>076.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR ARZ001-002-010-011.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...20
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page